God damnit I love betting football. Baseball I’ll play it and toss some lines out there, but football. It just hits different. I could write a book each and every day about football lines and trends. Example is today, we’ve got two games and I’ve got a full write for both games with some picks in there for you. We’re only 16 sleeps away from college football.
Let’s get to the action and start with the Texans Patriots game.
The line for this game opened at 38.5 and has already dropped to 37. On some books it’s already down to 36.5 and I’d expect that to continue to fall a bit prior to kickoff. Screaming we should play the game under right? Not necessarily. I actually think there are two over/under plays in this game.
The first half under and the second half over. The total game line, to me is a toss up. Accoridng to stats pulled by Bet Labs, first half unders since 2005 in games that are outdoors with the home team as a dog and a total at 34+ have gone 95-52-3 (65%).
Also both of these teams have a banged up offensive lines, with mostly 2 combined starters seeing any reps tonight. That means no Mac Jones and maybe only a few reps for Zappe as well. The first half should see a ton of running as both teams prioritize health over points. I really like the first half under 19.5 and I am going to play that tonight.
One other side note to keep an eye on is the weather tonight in New England. The forecast is calling for some high winds which will make for even less effective passing and kicking. This will play into the first half and game under hand as well. Especially seeing that both the Texans and the Patriots are going to be tossing out there rookie kickers at some point tonight. Both squads have brought on young kickers to compete for the starting job. The staff will want to give them reps in preseason.
Rookies + high winds = missed kicks.
Now for the second half of the game, I can’t find an over/under yet BUT. If the first half goes under there is going to be a live line play for the second half over. The second half of the game will see more back up action. CJ Stroud will play a ton in the first, which by the way, games with top 5 picks starting have gone under 6 of the last 6 times. More power to the first half under.
But anyway, back to the second half, the back ups will get a ton of reps, that means Houston will have an experienced Case Keenum out there while Patriots most likely will play Malik Cunningham. He is a fast dual threat QB which may look a lot like what we saw from the Browns game. Also another great stat that I saw on the Action Network page. Bill Belichick teams are 43-19-2 (69% nice) on second half overs in the preseason since 2005. Watch the live line for the second half over.
If you’re looking for more plays and another pick for tonight’s Seahawks Vikings game. Subscribe to my newsletter.