Breaking Down UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier

Mac

Folks…we made it. The FINAL PPV of 2021. SO much has happened in this sport this year and its all going to come to an end tomorrow night at UFC 269 in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

In the main event we have the champ Charles Oliveira (+135) vs #1 Dustin Poirier (-155) for the Lightweight Championship of the world. This is about as good and high level as it gets. 2 men that have scratched and clawed for the last 10 years to get to this point. A culmination of blood, sweat, and tears comes down to these 25 minutes tomorrow night. These fighters are at the peak of their abilities. It’s never been harder to beat Charles Oliveira and its never been harder to beat Dustin Poirier. These are simply facts.

How does play out? Well I see Dustin winning this one in the 4th round. He’ll put on the relentless pressure that he’s known for and will breakdown Charles via calf kicks and his boxing. We haven’t seen Oliveira in the championship rounds before and thats a concern for me. We’ve seen Poirier take opponents into the deep waters so often. He needs to be able to establish the tempo of the fight so he can apply that pressure late. If he controls the tempo, he can finish Oliveira in the later rounds. On the feet, he needs to hit him with volume which I believe will be the case. Dustin has plenty of power, but he needs to get his touches in this fight. He needs to be EXTREMELY careful in the clinch with Oliveira. If Oliveira can get a hold of his neck it could very well be game over for Dustin. This will be a special moment.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier becomes AND NEW via 4th round TKO (+120).

Now in the co main slot, we have the GOAT and the champion Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs #3 Julianna Pena (+650) for the Bantamweight championship of the world. This is a wide odds gap here and for good reason. Amanda Nunes is without a doubt the greatest female fighter in the history of the world and if she were to keep winning will quickly ascend to the Mount Rushmore of greatest female athletes of all time.

How does this play out? Well…I see Nunes going into this one with a fire under her ass. These 2 women have talked a lot of shit this week and im not sure if i’ve seen this fiery side from Amanda in quite some time. It’s refreshing. I’m not sure if Nunes is beatable mentally. She has an absurd amount of confidence in herself, she KNOWS she’s going to win and that’s a dangerous fighter. I see her walking down Pena and putting the pound on her. She might make it look easy. I’m honestly a little scared for Julianna here.

Prediction: Amanda Nunes AND STILL via 2nd round TKO (-152).

In the third slot on the main card we have a welterweight clash between #12 Geoff Neal (+110) vs #14 Santiago Ponzinibbio (-130) in what should be a huge chess match. I’m not feeling very high on Neal here. Getting a DWI a week and a half before your fight is not a good sign for a fighter for a variety of reasons. I was thinking Ponzinibbio before the arrest and now I really like him in this fight. It sucks cuz he was at plus money just a week or 2 ago.

Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio via Unanimous Decision

Now we go to this elite Flyweight matchup between #6 Kai Kara-France (+115) vs #7 Cody Garbandt (-135) in Garbrandt’s Flyweight debut. I was back and forth on this one. I’ve been a huge Garbrandt stan for the last several years. He’s lost me alot of money in the past but I’m banking on the former bantamweight champ once again. I think this could be fight of the night. I see Garbrandt having elite power at this level and a pretty big size advantage against Kara-France as well.

Prediction: Cody Garbandt via VICIOUS KO (+175)

Now we open the main card with a bantamweight fight with a lot of eyes on it and for good reason. #15 Raulian Paiva (+250) vs Sean O’Malley (-320) in an intriguing matchup here. Paiva has a super impressive MMA record of 21-3, that is something that cannot be counted out. I still like O’Malley here. He’s SO big for this weight class and his tall and lanky figure and length is a huge advantage for him for now. His striking is so stellar and his jabs are some of the best in the sport. I think He’ll have the fans rowdy to start the PPV.

Prediction: Sean O’Malley via KO 

I mean cmon…look at this man

And now to the prelims with some brief analysis. My underdog of the night is #9 Dan Ige at +135 vs #7 Josh Emmett in an awesome Featherweight bout. I see Ige finishing Emmett here. I’m a little concerned about Emmett coming off a 1.5 years from tearing his knee up. Dan Ige is not an easy opponent to come back to from a devastating injury like that.

How bout this bantamweight bout between #8 Pedro Munhoz (-120) and #9 Dominik Cruz (+100). I also love the plus money here for one of the greatest to ever do it. Dom Cruz is never to be counted out here. Munhoz will press him and put the pressure on and Dom is going to have to try and duck and dodge and take him down. I think Cruz and his team will have the right gameplan here. Give me another underdog on these prelims. Cruz by Unanimous Decision.

This heavyweight bout between #11 Augusto Sakai and Tai Tuivasa is gonna be awesome. This is a pick’em. I can see Tuivasa closing as dog here and if he does give me him by KO. The crowd loves a good shoey post KO for Tuivasa and I think he’s in a perfect spot for this card to get the crowd riled up. This will be a fun one.

Some notable names to look out for on the early prelims are Randy Costa, Ryan Hall, and Miranda Maverick.

This is it folks. Over 1000 words here. Please read so I know it was worth it.

The final PPV OF THE YEAR IS HERE. UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier will be a SPECIAL night.

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