Breaking Down UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane

Mac

We are back for UFC 265 in Houston, Texas tonight for an AWESOME main card of fights. In the main event, we have the Interim Heavyweight championship on the line as hometown hero #2 Derrick Lewis (+270) will take on #3 Ciryl Gane (-350) for the fight to face the real heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou.

This is an interesting matchup. I REALLY am intrigued by Lewis’ odds here. For someone with as much knockout power as he has, his odds are astonishing. I believe he could really pull it off tonight against a Muay Thai fighter that looks like a heavyweight but moves like a goddam welterweight. Gane is without a doubt the more polished and well rounded fighter here. He can for sure bring this one into the later rounds, take Lewis down, piece him up on the feet, etc. All of that is more than likely going to happen, but Lewis just needs one shot. I believe he lands that one shot.

Whether it’s the first round or the fifth round, Lewis has that power. He lulls people to sleep at times before putting them to sleep. He has that rope-a-dope mentality. I know all the intangibles are there for Gane. I think he’s the next hybrid type of guy to deal with in the UFC. But Derrick is in his hometown. The guy is so hard to put away. I think Derrick Lewis becomes the interim heavyweight champ with a KO in the 4th or 5th round. The atmosphere should be incredible.

In the co-main slot we have an intriguing bantamweight fight between #5 Jose Aldo (-140) and #9 Pedro Munhoz (+120). I really like Munhoz here, although Its never a good idea to bet against an all time great like Jose Aldo. Both of these guys are super dangerous and could end this at any moment. I see this being a really good scrap and a potential split decision here.

Munhoz is only a mild underdog, and I’m actually surprised the numbers lean his way. But on paper he’s similarly matched with Aldo in striking metrics, and will be the busier striker. Munhoz is also more assertive on the ground than Jose, and is the more likely one in this fight to change levels. This is very close on paper, and it could be an absolute barnburner. I really like Munhoz as the dog here.

In the middle slot on the main card, we have a unique matchup in the welterweight division as #5 Michael Cheese (-105) takes on #6 Vicente Luque (-115). This is my pick for fight of the night. I think this is a  stylistic matchup. We have Chiesa’s masterful ground game mixed with Luque’s ability to strike on the feet. I think we see a lot of back and forth exchanged and see Chiesa getting the submission victory late in the fight in the 3rd and final round. Cheese’s odds have shifted this week, he was a bigger dog, so if his odds go back to being a heavier dog, JUMP on it.

This women’s strawweight fight between #10 Tecia Torres (-145) and #12 Angela Hill (+125) is another fantastic matchup of 2 absolute badass women. Im a big Angela Hill Stan and she loves to throw down. She was the most active fighter in all of the UFC in the pandemic year of 2020. That says a lot about her. It makes me want to always bet on her, and tonight I will do just that. 4 underdogs starting with Hill, should be a good one.

To open the main card, we have an UNREAL matchup of bangers in the bantamweight division. I was very very close to making this my fight of the night. Song Yadong (+105) vs Casey Kenney (-125) is a fantastic fight. I love the money line play on Kenney here.

On paper, Kenney is the more balanced fighter compared to Song, as Kenney comes from a wrestling base. Kenney will be the more likely fighter to change levels, while the standup a near tossup. With similar offensive striking metrics, this will be a banger and a really fast paced fight. I see Kenney getting the nod in a wild start to the PPV.

Overall, this card is amazing, and better yet I LOVE the UNDERDOGS on this card more so than I think I ever have. Im so pumped to see what happens. LETS GO.

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