What To Expect When You’re Expecting, NBA Free Agency Day 1

We are less than twenty minutes before FA starts and there are rumors everywhere, like every year. Just some good, old fashioned, tampering. I’m just going to touch on a couple teams, players and potential trades in this, make sure you listen to Drunk Off PNR tomorrow for live reactions to deals made tonight.

Let’s start with Miami. I’m not a Miami fan, this isn’t a Miami site but as per usual they are connected to every single FA somehow. Weird that they never end up getting anyone (other than that Lebron guy a decade ago).

Lowry to Miami sounds like it is a done deal already. We don’t have much information but the early assumption is it’s going to include Herro. Basically, Miami is going to trade Toronto what Houston wanted for Harden. Listen if you can trade for one of the best scorers of our generation YOU SAY NO LOSE IN THE FIRST ROUND AND TRADE FOR A 30+ YEAR OLD PG!!!

From Lowry to Kawhi to Bobby Portis to Andre Drummond and Marcus Smart the Heat have been connected to a lot of guys who they will, obviously, never sign.

The Celtics have been connected to a few guys, not as many as some people would expect but this isn’t Danny Ainge running the ship anymore. If you’re not paying attention the moves the Celtics have made and/or are expected to make seem a bit lackluster. Of course you have people overreacting already calling for Brads head but the only big name the Celtics are connected to is Beal. All of these deals feel like they’re setting up something bigger. Whether that is a trade deadline move or a next offseason move, I don’t know. I think Brad is positioning himself to make a run at Beal, I don’t think he gets moved anywhere without him asking and it’s been a decade and he hasn’t come close to asking.

The Celtics are most likely going to lose Fournier this offseason. Recent talks have been they aren’t close in terms of numbers and the Celtics basically said “go get a deal and let us know what it is to see if we can beat it”. Sounds like the Knicks are prepared to beat it. Report out in the last few hours saying the Knicks will offer Fournier something that is “too rich for their blood” referring to the Celtics. My guess it’s 2+ years and 20M+ per year. I don’t see the Celtics doing any “big” multi year deals this offseason.

Just to break it up there are a few guys who are technical available. Kawhi is going to turn down his player option but all signs point to him returning to the Clippers. Chris Paul is declining his 44M player option, I think the Suns expect to resign him, probably to something close to 3 for 100M. With Miami getting Lowry and the Lakers getting Westbrook I’m not sure where else he would go.

After what feels like two seasons of uncertainty it sounds like John Collins will return to Atlanta. He is a restricted FA allowing the Hawks to match anything but as of two days ago the though was he’s get somewhere around 120M for Atlanta, a bit higher than the 80M they offered him before.

Last but not least, for this blog anyway, are the Sixers. Ben Simmons (and maybe Tobias) are being traded. When and where? Who knows. Every day it feels like we get a new report contradicting the previous report about this situation. Sixers are in no rush to trade him. Sixers will trade him on draft night. The team can’t get ahold of him. He’s been in constant communication.

The combination of Morey and Rich Paul leaking stories has been exhausting. My stance hasn’t changed on this and that’s because I’m right. He is a lower tier All Star level player who got paid like a big dog. There is no market for that. Teams want great players or good players on team friendly deals. They don’t want good players who get paid like great players. Simmons is a legit starter on every NBA team. Ignoring contracts for a second if he’s your fourth best player you have a real shot at winning. Unfortunately, your second or third best player being unwilling to score is a problem, when they make what he makes it is a bigger problem.

This team and this city have overrated his value that’s why he has such a big contract. That’s why Morey is looking for Top 10 players or a massive haul. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face. The best you will get for Simmons is McCollum and you will have to pay Portland to take him. That means including some type of combo of Shake, Maxey, Thybulle and picks. Somehow Morey got this reputation as being a top class GM, he’s a lot like Simmons. Overrated with an inflated ego.

I think a lot of people have hyped up FA this year but I think it’s going to be fairly tame. Big names are gonna get traded but I think a lot of the FA guys will do what is expected or return to their team. Next year is going to be the firework offseason I think.

Almost forgot. I have no clue what Derozan is going to do. It sounds like he has three teams he is interested in with no clear favorite yet. Also, I think Lonzo will sign with either Charlotte or Chicago and the Pelicans won’t match.

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