Welcome to my inaugural post and the first from Dad Bod Fantasy!
With the NFL draft only days away, here’s my prediction for round 1 picks based on team needs.
2.0 UPDATE: Kansas City Chiefs trade for Probowl OT Orlando Brown from the Baltimore Ravens!
Trade details: The Chiefs traded their 2021 first-round pick, a third-rounder (94), fourth-round pick (136) and a 2022 fifth-round pick in exchange for Orlando Brown, a 2021 second-round pick (No. 58), and a 2022 sixth-round pick.
Pick 1 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence – QB
This is a no-brainer and does not need a lot of discussion (Though recent commentary from Urban Meyer makes me question how solidified this pick really is). Lawrence has been groomed from a very young age to perform at this level and the Jags get the QB talent they so desperately need. Developing Lawrence alongside Chark, Jones Jr., Shenault Jr., and Robinson should thrust this team into an offensive powerhouse within the next couple years.
Pick 2 – New York Jets – Zach Wilson – QB
With Sam Darnold gone and no one to really take his place, the Jets will almost certainly choose a QB here. They have the luxury of choosing one of Wilson, Fields, Lance, or Jones here and any of them would be viable for what the Jets bring to the table. Wilson had a huge 2020, but how much of that is unicorn play vs him growing as a player? Regardless, he looks better than Darnold and with Gase out, the Jets are looking for their fresh start and will have it in Wilson.
Pick 3 – San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance – QB
I haven’t seen Lance go this high in any mock, but he’s the perfect fit for the 49ers. They’ve shown their love for the run game and Lance brings that dual-threat skillset. Shanahan will get the next Kyler Murray / Josh Allen to pair with his young and talented offensive weapons. Watch out for this once defensive powerhouse team to shift into a high-octane offensive team by simply swapping Jimmy G for Trey Lance.
Pick 4 – Atlanta Falcons – Mac Jones – QB
The Falcons have received calls for this pick, so don’t be surprised to see a trade here. I don’t think it’s going to happen though as they finally realized their need to find a Matt Ryan successor and bring in Jones. Jones has everything he needs to be successful in this league and will have the luxury of being groomed under Matt Ryan — this could easily be an Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes type transition.
Pick 5 – Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell – OT
2020 with Burrow vs 2020 without Burrow. It’s the Bengals so honestly, they could draft Justin Fields here and no one would be surprised… As a Nebraskan, I have to give my fellow Husker in Zac Taylor some benefit of the doubt and hope he convinces the Bengals brass to see the light. They do and they snatch up the best OT in this draft class to protect their franchise QB.
Pick 6 – TRADE – New England Patriots (from Miami Dolphins via Philadelphia Eagles) – Justin Fields – QB
I don’t feel like figuring out what the Pats give up to make this happen, but they do. The Dolphins continue their rebuilding phase by grabbing more draft capital and the Patriots grab their hopeful QB of the future. The Pats made huge moves to build up their offensive arsenal and we already know they do not like what they have at QB. With Denver and a few other QB needy teams ahead of them, the Pats take the lunge and grab Fields after he slides a smidge from his recent epilepsy news.
Pick 7 – Detroit Lions – La’Marr Chase – WR
One month they lose Kenny G and the next they gain a Nuk-comparable talent in Chase. He might not fall this far in the draft, but this is the first team with a clear WR need having just lost Kenny and Jones Jr. to free agency. This move makes sense and hopefully Detroit gets 2018 Goff and not whatever shell of a QB we’ve seen recently.
Pick 8 – Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater – OT
The Panthers stole Darnold from the Jets and will hopefully turn him into the prospect we all have been patiently waiting to see. Maybe finally getting away from Gase will do the trick à la Tannehill? Regardless, he gets some needed protection in Slater here.
Pick 9 – Denver Broncos – Patrick Surtain II – CB
When the Pats traded up to take a QB, they really did the Broncos dirty and sent them scrambling back to the draft board. They have some defensive holes and decide to shore one up by taking the first and best CB talent in Patrick Surtain II. They face Mahomes twice a year and get someone to pair with their off-season acquisition of Kyle Fuller.
Pick 10 – Dallas Cowboys – Kyle Pitts – TE
It’s not what they need, but I just don’t see Jerry Jones passing up on someone as special as Pitts, especially if he does fall this far in the draft (he probably won’t). With Dak locked up, a stacked WR corps, and well above average RBs, why not make this offense impossible to cover by sliding in Pitts?
Pick 11 – New York Giants – Micah Parsons – LB
This defense has been leaky at best for a number of years now. With decent offensive weapons already available, the Giants opt to slap some Flex Seal on their defense and shore up some holes at LB with Micah Parsons.
Pick 12 – TRADE – Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami Dolphins) – DeVonta Smith – WR
I could write an entire article about what’s going wrong with the Eagles. One of the biggest reasons Wentz has looked so uneasy, apprehensive, insecure, *insert negative adjective here*, etc… the last few years has been because he was constantly running for his life behind that high-school JV offensive line that somehow got permission to play in the NFL. While Hurts looks a lot more comfortable running for his life than Wentz ever did, he doesn’t have anyone to catch the ball… Fortunately Jerry Jones isn’t interested in stealing CeeDee Lamb this year, so the Eagles grab the next best WR in this draft.
Pick 13 – Los Angeles Chargers – Jaycee Horn – CB
O-line is relatively deep this draft class and the Chargers did add some decent help through FA, so I don’t expect them to use this pick on the line (but I wouldn’t blame them if they did). Instead, they’ve also realized that they play Mahomes twice a year and grab Horn to help keep the blowouts at bay.
Pick 14 – Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips – Edge
You can have all the offensive talent you want, but if your defense can’t put pressure on opposing QBs, you’re going to lose. The Vikings ranked 28 of 32 in terms of QB pressures (hurries, knockdowns, and sacks) last year. Adding Phillips gives the defense a chance to keep their offense competitive.
Pick 15 – TRADE – Miami Dolphins (Via New England Patriots) – Christian Darrisaw – OT
Remember when I said that I didn’t know what the Pats had to give up to take the 6th spot from the Dolphins? Well… here’s a gimme. The dolphins made a mistake when they took Tua, but now they have the responsibility of protecting their soon-to-be short-lived franchise QB. So they snag Darrisaw.
Pick 16 – Arizona Cardinals – Caleb Farley – CB
There was a time (2019) when I hoped my Chiefs would have traded for Patrick Peterson, but he has simply been the shadow of the shell of his old self recently and am glad we never got him. Fortunately, the Cardinals felt and same and moved on, but grabbed what could be his replacement and more in Caleb Farley.
Pick 17 – Las Vegas Raiders – Alijah Vera-Tucker- G
I don’t understand why Gruden decided to part ways with his O-Line. Yes, they were not the O-line of years past, but a lot of that can be written off to injuries (much like the rest of the COVID limiting NFL era of 2020). He all but forces the team to pick up some replacements with this pick and they do by selecting Alijah Vera-Tucker.
Pick 18 – Miami Dolphins – Jaylen Waddle – WR
With OT addressed in an earlier pick, the Dolphins now have the luxury of grabbing what some folks are calling the next Tyreek Hill to pair with Tua. I don’t expect Waddle to fall this far in the draft (It’s hard to pass up offensive talent instead of filling team needs), but today he does, and the Dolphins make the move.
Pick 19 – Washington Football Team – Teven Jenkins – OT
I mean, they have to have a new name by now right…? RIGHT!? Seriously though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try and trade for a top 6 pick to get a new QB here, but they don’t. Instead, they grab Jenkins. He had some (albeit limited) left tackle experience, so don’t be surprised if that’s the WFT plan.
Pick 20 – Chicago Bears – Greg Newsome II – CB
The Bears, also a top 6 pick trade candidate, fail yet again (#NotSurprised) to give Robinson a QB worthy of exploiting his amazing talents. Instead, they take Greg Newsome II to pair with Fulle… Oh wait, they cut their best CB.. They take Greg Newsome II to replace Kyle Fuller… I just don’t get the Bears.
Pick 21 – Indianapolis Colts – Elijah Moore – WR
Wentz finally has an offensive line that will let him breathe and the Colts have the closest thing to an Andrew Luck replacement as they could hope to find without drafting one. Some raw, but injury riddled talents at WR exist, so the Colts take their shot at adding a slick slot receiver in Moore.
Pick 22 – Tennessee Titans – Rondale Moore – WR
So… in case you didn’t know, the Titans have AJ Brown and almost no one else around to catch the ball now. I wouldn’t be shocked if they tried to move up to snag someone like Chase or Pitts, but they won’t here. Instead, they luck out and the other Moore comes in to fill the holes left behind by Jonnu and Davis.
Pick 23 – New York Jets – Travis Etienne – RB
I don’t think the Jets could go wrong with Travis Etienne or Harris here, so I flipped a coin and they’re getting Travis Etienne. They have some other needs and this is slightly leaning towards a luxury pick, but with a new coach and franchise (hopefully) QB picked earlier in the draft, why not take the opportunity to lock up huge talent on rookie deals for a few years?
Pick 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris – RB
The Steelers are also a candidate for top 6 trades in effort to find a Big Ben replacement, but they opt to hold their draft picks knowing full well they’re a year or two away from rebuilding territory if they’re not careful. Instead, they lock up RB and easy James Connor replacement (remember when we all thought he was the next Lev Bell…? Yeah, my DFS bankroll and season-long teams remember too…).
Pick 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig – S
Not a sexy pick and probably earlier than he should be grabbed, but the Jags need some safety help and reach a little to grab Moehrig.
Pick 26 – Cleveland Browns – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah – LB
A few years ago, before Mayfield was their QB, I said this team will finally come around and stop being the butt of everyone’s jokes (I mean, you can only have so many round 1 picks before that happens, right!?) and now here we are. The Browns are stacked and get lucky with a needs-based freefall of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to 26. Watch out for this team, they’re about to light some fires.
Pick 27 – Baltimore Ravens – Kwity Paye – EDGE
Everyone seems to be hating on the WR corps of the Ravens but lets not forget their QB (and overall offensive plan) is run-first; it’s natural for their WRs to have lower success than pass-heavy teams. As a result, the Ravens pass up on snatching more WR talent and instead choose to fill their defensive edge holes starting with Kwity Paye.
Pick 28 – New Orleans Saints – Asante Samuel Jr. – CB
It’s hard to decide on this pick until we have a clearer understanding of which direction the Saints are going to go: Running QB or Passing QB. I think this pick will give us a better understanding of their QB decision, but in this draft, they pick up a CB to pair with Lattimore.
Pick 29 – Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney – WR
I think we were all shocked by the draft choices of yesteryear and with MVS and Lazard looking like capable WRs alongside Adams, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went a different route again this year. But they don’t and ultimately are able to grab Kadarius Toney to fill the slot.
Pick 30 – Buffalo Bills – Tyson Campbell – CB
The Bills have an amazing, fairly well-rounded roster, so it’s a little tricky coming to what I feel is a good pick for them. Their defense is a little on the leaky side though and they hope Tyson Campbell will be the missing puzzle piece they need to get their ticket to the big game.
Pick 31 – Baltimore Ravens – Jayson Oweh – EDGE
The Ravens lost a lot of their star defensive players during free agency. With offensive lineman being as deep of a class as it is this year, they continue to add young talent on defense and take the same edge rusher that I had originally pegged the Chiefs to nab.
Pick 32 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Christian Barmore – DL
The Buccs don’t really need anything, so this pick is purely based on their weakest spot.
– Thrasher – Dad Bod Fantasy
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