DISCLAIMER: By reading this blog you agree to the terms that I will not be held responsible for the amount of money you will lose if you follow these bets.
Welcome back to another edition of Chip Choderson’s Gambling Primer. Not to toot my own horn, but last weekend my NFL Divisional Round picks went 8-4 (66%). Could’ve gone 9-3 (Chiefs -10) but Patrick Mahomes was injured in the 3rd quarter. I guess we’ll never know. If you followed my picks from the blog we had a great weekend. Might’ve been my first positive weekend of the year but who’s keeping track? FanDuel is. It’s not pretty. Anyway, this weekend we have the AFC and NFC Championship games. The Packers and the Buccaneers from the NFC and the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC. Both of these matchups should be exciting as all four teams rank within the top 6 in points per game.
Sunday 3:05pm|FOX| TB (+3.5) @ GB (-3.5) o/u 52
Our first matchup on Sunday is the Buccaneers at the Packers. Tom Brady vs Aaron Rodgers. Both of these offenses have been outstanding. Tom Brady and the Bucs are on a 5 game winning streak averaging nearly 35 points per game over that span. Meanwhile the Packers haven’t lost a game since November 22nd in an overtime loss to the Colts. Tampa Bay’s defense has been good this year, ranking 6th in total yards allowed in the regular season. Mainly because of their stellar rushing defense. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league (80.6). But they rank in the bottom half of the league in passing defense (21st overall). That’s worse than the Eagles. The Bucs trailed for most of the game last week and their offense looked a bit stifled at times. They scored three touchdowns thanks to some costly turnovers by the Saints that set them up with great field position. Three interceptions from Brees (one that sealed the game) and a fumble from Jared Cook. That won’t happen against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay had the least amount of turnovers this season with 11. Tampa Bay can put up points but they won’t be able to keep up with this Packers offense. If the Rams #1 defense couldn’t stop them, no one can. I think Green Bay wins this one commandingly.
GB -3.5 (-110)
Over 52 (-114)
Mike Evans u64.5 receiving (-110)
Ronald Jones o36.5 rushing (-110)
Allen Lazard o46.5 receiving (-112)
Sunday 6:40pm|CBS| BUF (+3) @ KC (-3) o/u 54.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting their third straight AFC Championship game. A feat accomplished only by the Eagles in the NFC. Both teams coached by Andy Reid. It’s no secret Andy Reid is one of the greatest coaches of all time. This Chiefs offense is leading the league in yards per game. The questions for Kansas City this weekend surround the health of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Not only did he suffer a foot injury last week against the Browns but he also suffered a concussion. Or a pinched nerve. We’re not really sure. Either way Patrick Mahomes resembled me leaving Curley’s Pub after a long Friday night when he tried to get up after that tackle. Something clearly wasn’t right. The foot injury is what concerns me the most. His mobility was clearly limited last week and you could see he was in pain. Thankfully Mahomes is okay and on schedule to play but if he can’t make plays with his legs, it puts the Chiefs at a disadvantage offensively.
Mahomes injury – https://youtu.be/jfLr_jYYSNE
On the other side of the ball we have the Buffalo Bills. The only fan base in the NFL that could be considered crazier than Philly. I’ve been to Buffalo for a Bills – Eagles game and that stereotype held true. A couple of my buddies had been kicked out of a bar while we were there and Buffalo residents proceeded to throw empty kegs at them. Hilarious. I don’t blame them for always being riled up as there’s not much to do in Buffalo and the Bills have sucked for nearly 2 decades. Not this year though as the Bills have made the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1993, when they beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Will history repeat itself? I think it does. The Bills haven’t put it all together yet in the playoffs but there’s no question they were one of the best offenses in the league this year. Ranking second in both yards per game and points per game. Thanks to a HUGE step forward by quarterback Josh Allen. They’re winning games in different ways than just with their offense which shows how complete of a team they are. Buffalo is gonna have to put up a lot of points to beat the Chiefs and keep their offense in check. Now don’t get me wrong, Patrick Mahomes with one leg and half a brain is still better than 90% of the league. I just believe this Bills team is good enough to take advantage of an injured Mahomes. Bills win outright in a high scoring game.
Bills +3 (+102)
Bills ML (+148)
Stefon Diggs o93.5 receiving yards (-110)
Travis Kelce o96.5 receiving yard (-112)
Like I said last weekend I’m not the world’s best gambler. If you could see my FanDuel account history you’d look at me completely different. So if you want to fade my picks I don’t blame you. Here’s the exact opposite of all my picks: #fadechip
TB +3.5, u52 TB/GB, Evans o64.5 receiving, Ronald Jones u36.5 rushing, Allen Lazard u46.5 receiving, Chiefs -3, u54.5 BUF/KC, Diggs u93.5 receiving, Kelce u96.5 receiving
Good luck, Losers!