Chip Choderson’s NFL Divisional Round Gambling Primer

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DISCLAIMER: By reading this blog you agree to the terms that I will not be held responsible for the amount of money you will lose if you follow these bets.

The 2020 NFL season has been interesting to say the least. We’ve had tons of drama from things like a player – who will not be named (Odell Beckham Jr.) – that secretly enjoys getting shit on during intercourse (totally true) to ANOTHER quarterback controversy in Philadelphia and everything in-between. Coaches have been fired, players suspended, new faces in the playoffs, and we’ve gotten to witness one of the all time terrible division races in the NFC Beast. With all the craziness of 2020 I’m just glad that we all have the opportunity to sit on the couch all day gambling, drinking, and watching playoff football. This weekend we have a great slate of games to gamble our paychecks away. I’m here to give you my favorite bets of the weekend.

SATURDAY, JAN 16 

4:35pm|FOX| LAR (+6.5) @ GB (-6.5) o/u 45.5

The first game of the weekend has us watching the Rams take on the Packers at Lambeau Field. One of the toughest places to play at in the winter. Thats just what the Rams are gonna need to pull this one out – toughness. If anyone can slow down this Packers offense with Aaron Rodgers leading the helm on his “2020 Fuck You Tour” MVP Caliber season, its this Rams defense. In the 2020 regular season the Rams defense has given up the fewest total yards per game, points per game, and passing yards per game. They’ve also allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball the Packers lead the league in points per game and are top 5 in total yards per game. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out and Davante Adams is playing like the best wide receiver in the league. The Rams are really banged up. Jared Goff has a broken thumb on his throwing hand and had surgery less than 3 weeks ago. John Wolford has already been ruled out for this game. Superstar defensive lineman Aaron Donald is a little banged up and wide receiver Cooper Kupp has a real chance of missing this game. The Rams managed to put up 30 points against the Seahawks last week, leaning heavily on rookie running back Cam Akers, but I don’t see them doing that against the Packers. I’m taking the under and Packers with the points.

Picks:

Packers -6.5 (-114)

Under 45.5 (-108)

Goff under 216.5 passing yards (-112)

8:15pm|NBC| BAL (+2.5) @ BUF (-2.5) o/u 49.5

This is my personal favorite game of the weekend. Both of these teams have been red hot with the Ravens winning 6 straight games and the Bills are looking like the second best team in the AFC. Buffalo is second only to the Packers in points per game this season. Baltimore comes in at 7th. Both offenses looked a bit sluggish in the first week of the playoffs. The Ravens managed to score only 20 points against the Titans. And although the Bills scored 27 points (thanks to some questionable “catches”) they looked a bit out of sync at times. It’s gonna be cold in Buffalo Saturday night and there’s a chance for some snow showers during this game. With the chance for shitty weather and both defenses playing better I lean the under. Not enough to bet it tho. Both  offenses can put up big numbers. I like the game to be close (as long as Lamar doesn’t have another case of the shits) and the Bills to cover.

Picks:

Bills -2.5 (-114)

Diggs over 93.5 receiving yards (-112)

Dobbins over 57.5 rushing yards (-112)

SUNDAY, JAN 17

3:05pm|CBS| CLE (+10) @ KC (-10) o/u 57

The Cleveland Browns have made the playoffs. And they won a playoff game. Yea, that’s right – the Cleveland Browns. Their first playoff appearance since 2002. And their first win since 1994. They’ve been playing some great football and Baker is starting to look like the number 1 overall pick he was. In his last 10 games he has 1 interception – week 14 against Baltimore. Unfortunately they have a road matchup with the defending champion Chiefs after a bye. Andy Reid coached teams are 23-5 straight up after a bye and 20-8 against the spread including playoffs. As good as the Chiefs are they’re only 7-9 ATS in 2020. Only covering ONCE in their last 8 games. The Browns are 7-10 ATS. The Chiefs have basically had 2 weeks to rest up for this game. I like them to get things going and cover the spread in what looks to be a high scoring matchup. I just don’t see the Browns being able to keep up.

Picks:

Chiefs -10 (-105)

Chiefs 1st half -6.5 (-110)

6:40pm|FOX| TB (+3) @ NO (-3) o/u 52

If this were a college bowl game it’d be sponsored by Old Country Buffet. The first ever matchup of 2 quarterbacks over the age of 40 in the playoffs. Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Two of the greatest to ever do it. Their first meeting in the post season. Third matchup this year. There are so many narratives in this game setting the stage to be a memorable one. The Saints have gotten the better of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in their first 2 matchups. Winning 38-3 in their most recent game. Since then the Buccaneers are 6-2 including a 5 game winning streak. The Saints are coming off an ugly win against a bad Bears team covering the spread in an all time bad beat for Bears bettors. They have the opportunity to sweep the Bucs 3-0 for the season. History points to New Orleans having the advantage. Teams going for the sweep in the post season are 14-7 all time ATS. But none of those teams have ever had to face the GOAT. Tom Brady has the Bucs offense rolling and I like them to win outright in a high scoring matchup.

Picks:

Bucs +3 (-104)

Bucs ML (+142)

Over 52 (-110)

After all that I have to be honest: I’m a terrible gambler. I mean I bet on the Falcons every week. You’re best bet at making money this weekend is to take the exact opposite of every pick in this blog. Here’s a quick look at that.

Rams +6.5, o45.5 GB/LAR, Goff o216.5 passing, Ravens +2.5, Diggs u93.5 receiving, Dobbins u57.5 rushing, Brown +10, Brows 1st half +6.5, Saints -3, u52 TB/NO

Good luck, Losers!

Featured Image – @benfreakbodykonstance Instagram

 

 

 

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