Dallas Mavericks Preview: Rookie Class Player Preview – @DailySportsViz

stephendataviz

Welcome back to Stevie Stats’ Official Dallas Mavericks Preview. If you want to check out part 1 – replacing Seth Curry – check the link: Dallas Mavericks Preview Part 1.

Today we will be focusing on the Dallas Mavs rookies class – in particular these 3 players: Josh Green, Tyrell Terry, & Tyler Bey. We will be taking a look at their positives / negatives, take a look at some highlights that showcase their skills, & finally find a proper NBA comp for each.

Josh Green

Born: Sydney Australia | College: Arizona | Position: Shooting Guard | 6 Foot 6 Inches | 210 lbs | 1st Round: 18th Pick

Josh Green was drafted by the Dallas Mavericks to fill a role and execute a few particular skills at a positive rate (team D & shooting). Let’s take a look at his strengths / weaknesses from college, his anticipated role with the Mavericks, & finally his current NBA player comp to see what type of NBA pro we can expect.

Before we jump into the analysis – let’s see what Rick Carlisle has to say about Josh Green:

Positives: Josh Green is a long athletic guard with great lateral quickness, he has the ability to guard multiple positions. He also shoots the 3 & mid range jumper at a positive clip. Green also has a good feel for when to cut to the basket and can involve his teammates with solid passes for easy buckets.

Negatives: Josh Green does not have ideal form on his jump shot, plays a bit mechanical, & needs to work on his interior finishing. When Green does get to the basket, he often can not finish or draw a foul.

Let’s take a look at a few highlights that showcase his positives & negatives.

Athletic Ability:

Offensive Package:

Cutting Ability

Spot Up 3

Pick & Roll Offense

Defense

Defensive Intangibles

Work Ethic

Inability To Finish At Rim

Funky Shooting Form (Could Not Find A Great Vid Of This)

Anticipated Role: For this season, Josh Green will be a role player coming off the bench. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you view it, he is positioned behind a log jam of established guards. The following players play at least similar positions and are ahead of him in the depth chart: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney Smith, Jalen Brunson, Trae Burke.

This does not mean there will not be minutes available for Green, it just means he will need to earn his minutes and execute properly when given the opportunity. Rick Carlisle does not tolerate dumb mistakes & famously has a short leash on rookies so Green will need to execute with precision to garner playing time for this upcoming season.

For this season, Green will not likely play big minutes, but that could change very soon. With news that Josh Richardson and the Mavs have not agreed to terms on a new contract, it sounds like Richardson will be out of town after this season (unrestricted free agent in 2021). This opens up a key spot for Green to step into and help the Mavs / Luka become a legit title contender for years to come. So the question remains, does Josh Green have the ability to step into a starting role as the key 3 & D guy for a team with championship aspirations?

Let’s take a look at our first visual to see what type of stats Green put up in college & how that will translate to the next level.

Most Likely Player Comp: Trevor Ariza | Danuel House | Matisse Tybulle | Darius Garland | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Denzel Valentine

Breaking Down The Viz: For Josh Green – I chose the following stats: assist to turnover ratio, 3 point %, total points scored, & rebounds to compare him to current NBA players to see what type of player we can expect. One note is all these stats are per 100 possessions, so it is not a perfect comparison, but it normalizes the numbers enough to compare. I chose these because these are the statistics that matter in a Rick Carlisle offense. We need players that can knock down 3s while not turning over the ball.

From this viz – we see that Josh Green had an assist to TO ratio of 1.61, 3 point % of 36% & rebounds at a plus rate. If you take a look at the other players grouped around Josh Green – the two most obvious comps are Trevor Ariza & Danuel House – both guys that have proven they can be the premier 3 & D guy on a championship contender. If Green can turn into these two players, that would be a HUGE win for the Mavs & quite frankly the best case scenario.

A few other names pop off this chart. The first is Josh Richardson, who Green is in line to replace next year. This is a great sign for us Mavs fans as it shows Green has the ability to step into that position as long as he continues to progress the way we expect. Now to the negative side of the comparison. I think if Green turns into a Denzel Valentine, Anfernee Simons, or Darius Garland, it is fair to say the Mavs reached on a player that was not ready. The jury is still out on Thybulle & ALexander-Walker, so I will hold my judgement until more games have been played.

The key point to take from this viz is that a player with plus size, the ability to knock down 3s, excels at rebounding, & does not turn the ball over is a major asset for any NBA team especially a Carlisle/Luka run team. The Mavs drafted Green in hopes they can find this type of player. I think Green will step into this role & thrive, becoming a Trevor Ariza type of NBA player for the long term.

Tyrell Terry

Born: North Dakota | College: Stanford | Position: Point Guard | 6 Foot 3 Inches | 175 lbs | 2nd Round: 31st Pick

Tyrell Terry was drafted with the 1st pick in the 2nd round as a quick smart guard out of Stanford. It appears Rick Carlisle envisions a similar role to JJ Barea, who recently moved on to a new team. A smart, savvy, quick point guard with range is a lethal weapon in the NBA & we are hoping Terry can become JJ 2.0.

Positives: Tyrell Terry is a smart, savvy player with an effortless shot, a confident 3 point stroke, & NBA range. His quick change of direction & ability to finish at the rim gives him an element on the offensive end that defenses have to respect. His ability to hit the 3 point shot at a positive clip opens up the lane & he capitalizes with his quickness & ability to finish at the rim.

Negatives: Tyrell Terry does not have an NBA frame right now. He is slight, thin & light. He will be a defensive liability early on & will need to work on team D to impact the game. Although he is quick, he is not overly athletic. He relies more on his brain and savviness rather than his athletic ability.

Let’s take a look at a few highlights that showcase his positives & negatives.

Shooting

Smarts/Savviness

Ability To Finish At Rim

Passing Ability

Thin Frame

Undersized

Anticipated Role: Unfortunately for Tyrell Terry, it will be VERY difficult getting regular minutes this season. As mentioned above, Rick Carlisle doesnt really trust rookies, especially point guards. This season, Terry will sit back and learn from the best, hopefully pick up some key skills from Luka and company to add to his skill set for next year.

I touched on it earlier, but I think best case scenario for the future of Tyrell is a JJ Barea / Jalen Brunson type role. I do not see Terry as a starting caliber point guard, but that does not mean he does not have value and a spot in the NBA.

Terry can come off the bench and be a major spark plug / leader of the second unit. His quickness combined with his ability to shoot the 3 & make smart passes makes him an ideal candidate to lead the second unit while Luka gets some well earned rest. In reality all we need from the backup PG spot is average productivity while Luka is on the bench. While that may not come this year from Terry, I believe he will continue to get better and blossom into a productive backup point guard on a Championship caliber team.

Let’s take a look at our next visual to see what type of stats Terry put up in college & how that will translate to the next level.

Most Likely Player Comp: Collin Sexton | Terry Rozier | Quinn Cook | Colby White | Emmanuel Mudiay | Frank Jackson

Breaking Down The Viz: For Tyrell Terry – I chose the following stats: assist to turnover ratio, 3 point %, rebounds, & steals to compare him to current NBA players to see what type of player we can expect. One note is all these stats are per 100 possessions, so it is not a perfect comparison, but it normalizes the numbers enough to compare. I chose these because these are the statistics that matter in a Rick Carlisle offense. We need players that can knock down 3s while not turning over the ball.

In college, Tyrell Terry did not have a great assist to turnover ratio – a spot Terry will need to vastly improve upon if he wants Rick Carlisles trust. Terry did shoot the 3 at a very high clip (41%), rebounded at a below clip for his position, & was below average when looking at steals.

As you can see above his closest comp in the NBA is Collin Sexton. Both players shoot right around 40% from 3 and have an assist to TO Ratio of 1.22. Neither player would be considered a wizard on the defensive end & do not rebound particularly great. Another comp is Frank Jackson – this is actually the most realistic player comp to me. Honestly, if he can become either player that is a win for a 2nd round draft pick.

A few other names pop out to me – if he can become a Colby White / Terry Rozier type – the Mavs will consider that a HUGE win. Also it’s funny to see Dennis Smith Jr considering how high we drafted him in the past. If Terry can become a Dennis Smith Jr type, that would also be a win for the Mavs.

It will be tough for Terry to find a regular spot on the Mavs, but ownership is banking on his hard work to prevail and find a spot to make a real difference. I think we are a few years away but I do see Terry sticking around the NBA for a long time.

Tyler Bey

Born: Las Vegas | College: Colorado | Position: SG/SF | 6 Foot 7 Inches | 220 lbs | 2nd Round: 36th Pick

Tyler Bey was drafted with the 36th pick in the NBA draft. Due to Bey’s size & defensive prowess, he is expected to step into an NBA rotation day 1.

Positives: Tyler Bey makes his bones on the defensive end. He uses is great lateral and vertical quickness to stay in front of multiple positions (PG to PF). He has great defensive anticipation, often jumping in passing lanes or coming over for a help side block. He has great hops and has a knack for finding offensive rebounds / 2nd chance points.

Negatives: As many positives as Tyler Bey has on defense, he may have just as many negatives on the offensive end. He is not a great passer, not a great 3 point shooter, does not shoot the 3 with confidence, & overall is a very limited offensive player. He spent most of his collegiate years operating out of the post, but may be undersized to play this style in the NBA. He is the definition of a project on the offensive side of the ball.

Let’s take a look at a few highlights that showcase his positives & negatives.

Inside Finishing

Plus Length

Athleticism

Defensive Versatility

Shooting Off Screens

Shooting

Anticipated Role: As mentioned above, Tyler Bey has the ability on the defensive end to step into an NBA rotation today. His offensive skill set is the question mark at the moment. This season he will not be seeing a lot of minutes & unless there are a string of injuries I do not anticipate Bey playing crunch time minutes. So what will his role be this year?

I think Bey can be a solid contributor playing small ball power forward. Bey has freakish athletic ability and defensive skillset that will force him onto the court. If Bey can turn into a junk yard dog version of DFS – that is the best case scenario for this season.

Let’s take a look at our next visual to see what type of stats Bey put up in college & how that will translate to the next level.

Most Likely Player Comp: Jae Crowder | Will Barton | Gary Clark | Troy Brown Jr

Breaking Down The Viz: For Tyler Bey – I chose the following stats: 3 point %, total rebounds, 3 point attempts, & steals. I chose these stats because I believe it tells the full story of what type of player Bey currently is.

At first glance his 3 point % is VERY VERY impressive, but when we start digging a little deeper, it quickly becomes VERY VERY unimpressive. Tyler Bey shoots 42% from 3 but only attempted 18 3 pointers last season. That is a pathetic number no matter how you frame it. Especially when you factor in the shorter 3 point line – this tells me Bey is not confident whatsoever in his 3 point shot. The other stat that jumps off the page is his total rebounds. For his size and position, Bey is a plus rebounder in every sense of the word. We also see that Bey’s circle is very large indicating that he is great at swiping the ball from the opponent – showing he is a plus defender.

So with all that said, what does it mean for Bey. Honestly, this is a very hard player to find a comp. We are basically looking for a player who shoots the 3 well, but not confident enough to shoot a lot of them, a player that rebounds like a mad man, & a player who can pick your pocket without you even noticing.

The Michael Porter Jr comp is not a great one, based on the fact that MPJ has a gift on the offenisve end. It would not be fair to compare these players, but according to stats he is the closest player comp.

In reality Bey’s comps are closer to Jae Crowder, Will Barton, Gary Clarke, or Troy Brown Jr. Not bad, but certainly not in the same class as MPJ, Kris Middleton, or Gordon Hayward.

Bey is certainly a project, but if he can add a legit 3 point shot, the project will be well worth the risk. I believe Bey will round out his skill set and be a productive NBA player for a long time.

Be on the lookout for Part 3 of the Stevie Stat’s Dallas Mavericks Preview coming out later this week.

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