Welcome back to more winners, see overall record below:
I know I was bad yesterday, but we move on. Today I have 3 bets for you to get us over .500 for the weekend.
Bet 1: TB -4.5 (-110)
Reason: LAR have not beat decent teams on the road. As you can see below, if you take out NFC East teams – they are winless. Granted this is a small sample size, but when LAR play a good team on the road they do not look great.
Lost @ MIA 28-17 (11/1)
Lost @ SF 24-16 (10/18)
Won @ WAS 30-10 (10/11)
Lost @ BUF 35-32 (9/27)
Won @ PHI 37-19 (9/20)
On the other side of the coin is the TB Bucs at home. Take out the Saints game and the Bucs have been rolling teams at home (average margin of victory is 16.3). Take a look at the results below:
Lost vs NO 38-3 (11/8)
Win vs GB 38-10 (10/18)
Win vs LAC 38-31 (10/4)
Win vs CAR 31-17 (9/20)
I think Tom & the Bucs come out hot in the 1st quarter and never relinquish the lead.
Bet 2: 1st Q Over 9.5 (-120)
Reason: In all but 1 TB game the 1st quarter has gone over 9.5 (avg 13.1). As you can see below, TBs 1st quarter defense is one of the worst in the NFL (29th), especially in the last 3 games (32nd) & at home (32nd).
Lastly, both teams average > 6 points scored in the 1st quarter this season (see top 10 below).
Bet 3: Total Under 48
I know it sounds counterintuitive to pick a 1st quarter over & a total under, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
Check out a key few stats regarding both defenses:
- % of Drives Defense Gives Up Points: TB: 6th ranked (33%) | LAR: 2nd ranked
- Least Missed Tackles: TB 6th ranked (48) | LAR: 7th ranked (50)
A few more reasons I like the under:
- LAR are 2nd in points against (168)
- TB is 2nd in takeaways per game (1.7)
- TB is 3rd in pressures per game (10.4)
- TB is 2nd in rushing yds allowed (766)
- LAR is 5th in rushing yds allowed (871)
- LAR is 2nd in least amount of 1st downs given up by penalty