UPDATE: ML Parlay Special Added At Bottom
Welcome back to another glorious slate of NFL Sunday football where we win you $$$.
Speaking of winning you $$$ we went 3-0 last Monday to bring our record for week 10 to an impressive 4-2.
Speaking of impressive – take a look at my overall NFL Twitter Record. 13-4 (77%). I’ll let the record speak for itself.
Now let’s get to the reason you clicked this blog – winners.
Game: Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ Denver Broncos | O/U 46 | 4:05 ET
Weather: Calm & Cool
Bet: Miami -3.5
Reason: The Dolphins have won 5 straight games & the media is quick to give the credit to Tua. Don’t get me wrong Tua has played well & was the spark needed for this Dolphins team at the time, but I’m here to tell you the credit should actually be given to this Dolphin defense. Take a look at how impressive Miami’s defense has been this season:
Points Allowed: 5th | Takeaways: 3rd | Drives Opponent Scores Points: 3rd | Drives Opponent Turns Ball Over: 3rd
No matter how you shake it, those numbers are impressive.
Let’s talk about their opponent, the Denver Broncos. This season the Broncos passing offense is a bottom 10 unit in passing yards per game (227.4). Add in the fact that Drew Locke is banged up with a bad shoulder – I like Miami even more. Take Miami and feel confident this one is going to hit.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars | O/U 46 | 12:05 ET
Weather: Sunny with a slight wind
Bet: PIT -4.5 & Over 40 (6 Point Tease)
I love the Steelers in this spot, but I can’t take -10.5 points in an NFL game. It’s just too much to lay when two pro teams are playing each other. So instead, I will be doing a 6 point teaser & taking Steelers -4.5 & Over 40. Check out a few key stats for both defenses in this game:
Steelers D: Points Allowed:3rd | Takeaways: 2nd | Pressures: 1st | Drives Opponent Scores Points: 5th | Drives Opponent Turns Ball Over: 2nd
Jags D: Points Allowed: 30th | Takeaways: 24th | Pressures: 26th | Drives Opponent Scores Points: 31st | Drives Opponent Turns Ball Over: 27th
I think you can see why I like the Steelers so much in this spot. Let’s talk about offense because after all the second half of this teaser is an over play.
The Steelers average 30 points per game & havent scored less than 24 all season. The Jags are not as high powered but average a respectable 22 points per game. One note is there is a slight uptick in the last 3 games – JAC averages 25 pts/game in the last 3 compared to 22.
I feel confident the Steelers will put up 30+ which means we are only looking for 10 points from the Jags. Lock this one in & sit back and let Ben do his thing.
ML Parlay Special: MIA ML & KC ML (-116)
Reason: The Dolphins will take care of the Broncos easily, so essentially this is a KC ML bet for -116 & who in their right mind would pass that up.