Welcome back to another beautiful day of NFL football and that means another chance to win you $$$$$. If you tailed my weekend picks (see post here) – we went 1-1. Not terrible, but you come here to win $$$ & 50% aint cutting it.
Lucky for you I have been painstakingly combing through the numbers & found a key statistic that will help guide us in the correct direction for tonight’s play. Let’s get into it.
Game: Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Chicago Bears | O/U 44 | 8:15 ET ESPN
Weather at Kickoff: 42 degrees | 5% chance of rain | WNW 10 MPH Winds
Bets: Chicago Bears +3 | 6 Point Teaser: Bears +9 & Over 38
Reason: Earlier today I ran a statistical analysis & found that defensive takeaways, defensive pressures, % of drives the defense gives up an offensive score. & % of drives opponent ends in offensive turnover – had high correlation to covering the spread (ATS win %). I won’t bore you with the details but in 4 of 5 of the statistics – these 2 teams were basically identical.
So today we will be focusing on the 5th statistic & that is % of drives the defense gives up an offensive score.
As you can see from the viz – the difference between these two teams is huge. Chicago is ranked 10th (37.7% of drives end with their opponent putting up points) vs Minnesota ranked DEAD LAST (52.9%). Over half of the time opposing offenses put up points against the Minnesota defense – that is abysmal no matter how you spin it.
I’m aware that the Bears offense is pretty pathetic, but the Minnesota defense is actually that much worse. I’m riding with the Bears & teasing the over.
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