Another night, another Whipsnakes beatdown. The Whips look head and heels better than everyone else except for maybe the Archers. Sunday’s matchup on NBCSN is going to be prime time TV, it’s going to determine the number one seed, and bye, in playoffs, as well as be a likely precursor to the championship. The Chaos are getting things together and are certainly capable of a win tomorrow over the Waterdogs, as well as a potential upset in the playoffs.
The second game was nuts, eight goals scored in the first quarter, three each in the second and third, followed by eleven(!!) in the fourth quarter. With our POTD being the over in this game I thought it was going to be smooth sailing after the first, had nearly relinquished all hope early in the fourth, only to watch a fluke two-pointer from Chrome and a crazy comeback attempt from the Waterdogs push us up over the 21.5 mark.
- Whipsnakes beat Chaos 12 – 7
- Chrome beat Waterdogs 13 – 12
Some things we learned:
- Chaos seem to be putting things together a bit. Losing by 5 certainly isn’t a good look but the Whipsnakes may just be that good. Chaos looked decent last night and against any other team they likely would have been in the mix and may have been able to pull out a win.
- Joe Nardella is now the best face off man in the world. He’s just utterly dominating his competition every game and is making a strong push for league MVP consideration. The whipsnakes are already tough to beat, it’s nearly impossible when they are playing make it take it after goals with Nardella.
- Both the Chrome and Waterdogs can score in absolute bursts, and both can hit major droughts as well. If either team can up their consistency and play a full 48 minutes each game throughout the playoffs they have the pieces to make a run.
- The heat, and condensed schedules seem to understandably be getting to players. It appears to show the most on offense where turnovers and sloppy play have been rampant.
- We mentioned this before but teams are both adamant about stopping defensive transition, and comfortable settling for 6v6 themselves. This coupled with the sloppy play, and exceptional goalie play are playing a major role in overall scoring being way down this year, and having the under hitting left and right.
- Overall scoring is down to 20.9 goals per game this season, from 24.5 per game last year.
Season trends so far:
We can start to take a look at how the spread, moneylines, and totals are starting to play out. The below table shows how many times each bet has won, and in parenthesis shows how many units you would have won or lost, had you bet a single unit on that pick every time.
For instance, underdogs have covered the spread in six out of nine games. If your bet units were $100 per game, and you bet one unit on the underdogs to cover the spread in every single game, you would be up 0.6 units, or 60 dollars, so far on the season.
Favorites have won nine out of eleven games, but only covered the spread in four of those. The under has hit every game but two so far.
The biggest trends point towards the very obvious, bet the under, as well as bet favorites on the moneyline, and underdogs against the spread.
Here’s how our picks did last night:
- Win (2u) on Waterdogs/Chrome O21.5 (-104)
- Loss (1u) on Waterdogs ML +125
- Win (1u) on Whipsnakes/Chaos U22.5 (-110)
Last night we went 2-1 for +1.74 units.
Game 12 – Redwoods vs Atlas (1:00 PM ET – NBC)
Spread: Redwoods -1.5 (+120) | Atlas +1.5 (-148)
Total: 21.5 | O -110 | U -110
Moneyline: Redwoods (-165) | Atlas (+135)
Neither team played last night so they each have had a day of practice and game-planning heading into tonight’s game. I just have zero confidence in Atlas and their ability to come together as a team right now. The redwoods defense is still solid, and Troutner has been playing great in cage. While the Atlas defense really struggled against the well-oiled Whipsnakes offense, they play okay on ball. The Redwoods don’t have nearly the offensive firepower of the Whips and I expect this to be a low scoring affair. Redwoods games have had an average total of 20, while Atlas games have had an average of 21.
We’re sticking with the season long trends here. I like the Woods ML and the under. I’m staying away from the spread but of the two options I like Atlas.
Game 13 – Chaos vs Waterdogs (3:30 PM ET – NBC Sports Gold)
Spread: Chaos N/A | Waterdogs N/A
Total: N/A | O | U
Moneyline: Chaos (N/A) | Waterdogs (N/A)
The lines for this game are not yet available. I’m expecting this game to be a toss up. Both 0-3 teams, both who I’m sure feel better than their records, and likely are. The Waterdogs almost pulled off their miraculous comeback last night but fell just short and the Chaos have struggled a bit to get things going against a really tough schedule but have shown some flashes of last year.
If I was setting the line I would have the Waterdogs as slight favorites and the total at 23.5. If the total comes in at 22.5 or less we’ll be taking the over. If it’s 25.5 or more we’ll go with the under. 23.5 or 24.5 we’ll have to see what the odds on each are but may stay away from it.
Without seeing the line I am already leaning towards taking the points regardless of which team is the underdog.
As far as the moneyline, I like the Dogs straight up in this game but would have to see the odds before committing. If the Waterdogs are the underdogs I’m going with that, if they are the favorite I would consider it up to -120 but leave it alone after that. If the Chaos come in better than +150 on the ML I would probably roll with that.
Once the lines come out and we have a chance to see where the odds land I’ll put my picks up on @lacrosselocks
- 1u Redwoods ML (-165)
- 1u Redwoods/Atlas U21.5 (-110)
- Chaos v Redwoods posted to @lacrosselocks
Championship Series so far
- Overall: 11W – 7L
- +3.49 units