PLL Picks – Friday Night Lights

lacrosselocks

Another crazy night of lacrosse.  Whipsnakes showed everyone they haven’t missed a beat since last year’s championship, absolutely throttling Atlas.  They lost four pieces on offense but haven’t seemed to slow at all, Zed Williams has been a beast and fits into the offense perfectly. The second game had some technical difficulties when the heat knocked out power to the stadium and surrounding area.  After about a 90 minute delay the teams came back out and put on a heck of a show with Chrome making a second half comeback to force OT. Archers were able to close it out with an unreal handle and shot by Ryan Ambler, from Grant Ament, as the shot clock expired. 

 

Games: 

  • Whipsnakes beat Atlas 15 – 6
  • Archers beat Chrome 13 – 12 in OT

Some things we learned:

  • The Whipsnakes are really, really good still.
  • The Atlas are not.  The game last night got completely out of hand and was frankly embarrassing by the end of it.  They have loads of talent, but no energy or chemistry. 
  • Chrome seem like the real deal, being down 8-3 at half they easily could have rolled over (like Atlas) and just taken the L.  Instead they have a 6-1 third quarter to tie it up and give us one of the best games of the short season.  
  • I have the Whips and Archers as the two best teams in the league, Chrome are a step behind them and after that I think it’s the Waterdogs.  The other three have the talent to play with anyone, but unless they fix some glaring holes quickly I don’t think they make much noise come playoffs. 
  • Grant Ament is a stud.  Everyone expected the number one overall pick to make an immediate impact but I’m not sure how many would have had him leading the league in points three games in.  The Archers seem more and more comfortable each game with letting Ament QB the offense and having the rest of the squad play off.  The fact that Archers have arguably the best player in the world (Tom Schrieber) and he doesn’t even garner the most attention on his own team is scary. 

Season trends so far:

We can start to take a look at how the run lines, moneylines, and totals are starting to play out.  The below table shows how many times each bet has won, and in parenthesis shows how many units you would have won or lost, had you bet a single unit on that pick everytime. 

For instance, underdogs have covered the spread in six out of nine games.  If your bet units were $100 per game, and you bet one unit on the underdogs to cover the spread in every single game, you would be up 1.0 units, or 100 dollars, so far on the season. 

Favorites have won seven out of nine games, but only covered the spread in three of those.  The under has hit every game but one so far. 
SeasonSoFar731
The biggest trends point towards the very obvious, bet the under, as well as bet favorites on the moneyline, and underdogs against the spread. 

Here’s how our picks did the last two nights:

  • Win (2u) on Whipsnakes ML (-155)
  • Win (1u) on Whipsnakes/Atlas U22.5 (-110)
  • Win (1u) on Chrome spread +1.5 (-139)
  • Loss (1u) on Chrome/Archers U21.5 (-106)
  • Loss (1u) on Atlas to win more face-offs (+130) – available on FoxSportsBet

Last night we went 3-2 for +0.92 units. 

Game 10 – Whipsnakes vs Chaos (7:00 PM ET – NBCSN)

Spread: Whipsnakes -3.5 (+155) / Chaos +3.5 (-190)

Total: 22.5 | O -110 | U -110

Moneyline: Whipsnakes (-250) / Chaos (+200)

Let’s break down the spread and money-lines here and see what our break even points are:

  • Whipsnakes -2.5 36%
  • Chaos +2.5 69%
  • Whipsnakes ML 67%
  • Chaos ML 37%

Honestly, I think these lines are pretty strong, I don’t see a ton of value anywhere.  My plan is to wait to see if they shift throughout the day. As things are now the Whips ML is my pick of the four, but with low confidence. 

Edit: Just since starting this article the lines have moved. Here’s the breakeven points now:

  • Whipsnakes -3.5 39%
  • Chaos +3.5 65.5%
  • Whipsnakes ML 71.5%
  • Chaos ML 33.3%

I still think I’m just leaving these lines alone, though Chaos +3.5 is a LOT of points, I just don’t know if they hit it the 65% that we need. I’m still shying away from the spread and money-line in this game.

As far as the total, I think it’s about right as well and we’re going to see many of the games sit in that 21.5 to 22.5 range for the time being, which is probably about right. I am leaning the under on this at 22.5 but I think it’s reasonable to wait this out until closer to game time and see if the line moves at all. 

Game 11 – Chrome vs Waterdogs (9:30 PM ET – NBC Sports Gold)

Spread: Chrome -1.5 (+135) | Waterdogs +1.5 (-165)

Total: 21.5 | O -104| U -118

Moneyline: Chrome (-155) | Waterdogs (+125)

Chrome had a long night last night, they had over a 90 minute delay after excessive heat knocked out the power in the surrounding area.  After returning to play they had to climb back into the game against a physical Archers team, eventually got the game to overtime and lost a heartbreaker.  Meanwhile Waterdogs we’re off for the last two nights resting up and locking in their game plan for tonight. The Dogs have two losses by a combined three goals so far and have looked good for an expansion team.  I think they break through tonight and pick up their first win. 

This money line opened at +140 (42% BE) for the Waterdogs and is now at +125 (45% BE).  I put 2 units on the opening line, with the shift I still think it’s a good bet but would only go 1 unit now. 

The totals have finally settled down in the low twenties.  I think 22.5 is a pretty good generic spot for games from what we’ve seen so far.  I think the two teams tonight will be able to put some goals in and I’m making the over on this game my POTD.

Today’s picks

  • 2u on Waterdogs/Chrome O21.5 (-104)
  • 1u on Waterdogs ML (+125)
  • 1u on Whipsnakes/Chaos U22.5 (-110)

Championship Series so far

  • Overall: 9W – 6L
  • +1.75 units
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