PLL Picks – Thursday Night

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We’ve gotten through two more nights of PLL action.  The Archers and Chrome each picked up another win on Tuesday night, and the Redwoods won in OT last night against the Chaos in the game that was rescheduled from Monday night. 

Games: 

  • Archers beat Waterdogs 9 – 7
  • Chrome beat Redwoods 12 – 11
  • Redwoods beat Chaos 8 – 7 in OT

Some things we learned:

  • Three more games, three more unders.  This has been crazy, all seven games have seen the under hit.  
  • If you bet 100 dollars on the first game under, and let it ride on the under every game since, you’d be up to nearly 10 grand right now.  Absolutely bonkers. 
  • The average score of the first seven games has been 20 goals per.  
  • Games are still incredibly tight across the board.  This makes the underdogs look pretty enticing against the spread.
  • Lines keep moving.  The trends so far have been totals moving lower and odds for the favorites decreasing.  If you want to bet favorites and unders it’s a good idea to get in at line openings.  If you like the overs and underdogs you’re better waiting it out a bit and seeing if the line moves in your favor.
  • The games are sloppy, whether it’s the oddity of this season, the lack of chemistry, the short turnaround on games, whatever it is, there are tons of turnovers.  Lots of possessions that spend too long subbing and don’t get good looks.  Balls just being straight up thrown away.  The defenses seem pretty dialed in, but the offenses have been struggling across the board.  
  • The goalies are the best players in the league.  Seriously, these guys have been unreal so far this season.  Maybe the short turnarounds are beneficial to them, as they are physically affected the least.  Maybe they are just that much better than their counterparts. All eight (archers have two goalies split halves) should be in the conversation if not the top of the list for their team MVP.  They are playing a major role in all of the unders hitting so far. 

Season trends so far:

We can start to take a look at how the run lines, money-lines, and totals are starting to play out.  The below table shows how many times each bet has won, and in parenthesis shows how many units you would have won or lost, had you bet a single unit on that pick every time. 

For instance, underdogs have covered the spread in five out of seven games.  If your bet units were $100 per game, and you bet one unit on the underdogs to cover the spread in every single game, you would be up 1.3 units, or 130 dollars, so far on the season. 

Favorites have won five out of seven games, but only covered the spread in two of those. 

The under has STILL hit every game so far. 

PLLSeasonSoFar730

The biggest trends point towards the very obvious, bet the under, as well as bet favorites on the money-line, and underdogs against the spread. 

 

Here’s how our picks did the last two nights:

  • Loss (2 units) Archers/Waterdogs O22.5 (-115)
    • Kept preaching the unders and had to get contrarian here.  Live and learn. 
  • Win (1 unit) Archers ML (-159)
  • Win (1 unit) Chrome +1.5 (-134)
  • Win (1 unit) Chrome/Redwoods U25.5 (-127)
  • Win (1 unit) Redwoods ML (-117)
    • This one got a little scary at the end.  Woods went from looking like they would not only win, but cover the spread, to giving up a late 2 point goal, sending it to OT. Thankfully they closed it out during the extra period and we booked a win here on our money-line.
  • Win (1 unit) Redwoods/Chaos under 25.5 (-110)
  • Talk about auto.  This game had 2 points in the first quarter, and another 2 in the second quarter, one of those being with three seconds left. This shifted to 23.5 on Wednesday after the rescheduling, but even with the new line it wasn’t close to a sweat. I’ll be taking Redwoods’ unders until they are in the teens.

Last two nights combined we went 5-1 for +1.94 units. 

 

Game 8 – Whipsnakes vs Atlas (7:00 PM ET – NBCSN)

Spread: Whipsnakes -1.5 (+110) / Atlas +1.5 (-134)

Total: 22.5 | O -110 | U -110

Moneyline: Whipsnakes (-155) / Atlas (+127)

These two played twice last year:

Week 4: Whipsnakes win 15 – 10

Week 6: Whipsnakes win 11 – 9 

 

Average Total Heads Up: 22.5

Average Whipsnakes Total 2019 | 2020: 24.4 | 22

Average Atlas Total 2019 | 2020 : 25.7 | 21

The Whipsnakes are good still, really, really, good.  The Atlas look like they are still trying to figure it out.  What looked like maybe the best midfield in the league on Atlas, is now being led by a rookie, while the rest of the midfield just looks out of sorts.  The Atlas do seem improved on defense, and Tucker Durkin may be back playing tonight.  

I am a huge fan of the Whipsnakes moneyline here, I was able to hammer it opening (-121) but even at the current -155 it’s my favorite pick of the night. 

I’m staying away from the spread, but lean Whipsnakes there as well.

The O/U has shifted from 25.5 to 22.5! A 3 point move is nuts.  I got this at the opening as well and while I thought it might drop a point, I’m pretty floored by the movement.  Even with 22.5 I like the under, although I think it’s a pretty decent line.  Of my bets today it’s towards the bottom in confidence at the new line.

Side note – if you are able to bet on FoxSportsBet, they have a random player prop or two each game.  Tonight’s is who will win more face-offs.  Whips are -167 while Atlas are +130.  Baptiste (Atlas) has only been held below 50% once so far in his pro career, and is regarded by many as the best FO man ever.  I’m hitting this bet as well for Atlas. 

 

Game 5 – Chrome vs Archers (9:30 PM ET – NBC Sports Gold)

Spread: Archers -1.5 (+115) | Chrome +1.5 (-139)

Total: 21.5 | O -115 | U -106

Moneyline: Archers (-141) | Chrome (+115)

These two played twice last year. 

Week 1: Archers win 13 – 12

Week 7: Archers win 9 – 7

Playoffs: Archers win 12 – 10

 

Average Total Heads Up: 21

Average Archers Total 2019 | 2020: 21.6 | 18.5

Average Chrome Total 2019 | 2020: 26.4 | 22.5

 

The two teams that are 2-0 face off tonight on NBC Sports Gold.  The Chrome look like a completely different team from last year.  They have a ton of chemistry and seem maybe the most dialed in to their game plan.  The archers are very comfortable with playing 6v6, they focus on stopping transition and making their opponent find something in a settled set.  Offensively they run pretty deep into the shot clock themselves most possessions.  While both offenses are very talented, the defenses have been solid (especially Archers) and I don’t see the pace of play being fast enough to really pump in some goals tonight. 

I like the much improved Chrome here with the points. 

I thought about staying away from the total here in this game, 21.5 is the lowest of the season so far. Yet it’s still somehow over the 2020 season average.  I’m just going to put at least 1 unit on every under until one of them doesn’t hit. 

I’m not playing the money-line myself but think the Archers straight up is a pretty decent bet. 

Today’s picks

  • 2u on Whipsnakes ML (-155)
  • 1u on Whipsnakes/Atlas U22.5 (-110)
  • 1u on Chrome spread +1.5 (-139)
  • 1u on Chrome/Archers U21.5 (-106)
  • 1u on Atlas to win more face-offs (+130) – available on FoxSportsBet

Championship Series so far

  • Overall: 6W – 4L
  • +0.83 units

If you’re looking for quick looks at lines as they open, follow us @lacrosselocks on Twitter.

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