Another night down in the PLL, a bit of an interesting one as the Redwoods/Chaos game was delayed due to lightning, and after several delays was postponed entirely until Wednesday night. If you got bets in before the postponement those are still being held, but the lines for the game itself have been taken down for the time being.
Redwoods vs Chaos – POSTPONED – now Wednesday 11PM EST
Archers beat Atlas 12 – 11
Some things we learned:
- The under hit, again. We keep talking about taking the under until proven wrong but only took one under so far in our daily picks. We’re taking some unders today.
- We thought it would be unsustainable for the PLL to continue it’s run of 1 goal match-ups (43% of games in 2019). But four games in, we have had 2 one-goal games, and another 2 decided by three goals.
- The lines are moving a lot from where they open. Yesterday’s redwoods run line moved from +205 all the way down to +120. The archers run line started at -1.5 (+135) and shifted all the way to Archers -2.5 (+120). That’s WILD, from having to cover a 1.5 spread 42.5% of the time, to a 2.5 spread 45.5% of the time. Today’s under in the Chrome/Woods game has already shifted from -110 to -127.
Season trends so far:
We can start to take a look at how the run lines, money lines, and totals are starting to play out. The below table shows how many times each bet has won, and in parenthesis shows how many units you would have won or lost, had you bet a single unit on that pick every time.
For instance, underdogs have covered the spread in three out of four games. If your bet units were $100 per game, and you bet one unit on the underdogs to cover the spread in every single game, you would be up 0.9 units, or 90 dollars, so far on the season.
Favorites have won three out of four games, but only covered the spread in one of those. The under has hit every game so far.
Here’s how our picks did yesterday:
LOSS (-1 unit) Archers -1.5 (+135)
This one hurt a bit with the Atlas covering the spread with 35 seconds left in the game. Had the archers won the endline runout with about a minute to go they could have just run out the clock and held. That said, we mentioned the insane line and odds shift from this game above. I still love the value we had originally and not going to fret too much over the late cover.
Game 5 – Archers vs Waterdogs (7 PM ET – NBCSN)
Spread: Archers -1.5 (+100) / Waterdogs +1.5 (-121)
Total: 22.5 | O -115 | U -106
Moneyline: Archers (-159) / Waterdogs (+130)
These teams did not play last year.
Average Total Heads Up: N/A
Average Archers Total 2019: 21.6
Average Waterdogs Total 2019: N/A
Wow, it looks like the totals might be adjusting, the total of 22.5 for this game is the lowest of the season so far. I know I said to keep taking the unders but this one appears to be an overadjustment, I would have expected 24.5 or 25.5 here (and taken the under had that been the case). The archers offense looked incredibly dynamic last night, they were a little sloppy in the first quarter being their first game but they showed they can score in bunches from then on. They hit about 5 pipes last night, and went up against Concannon in cage who is looking like the best goalie in the league to start the season. I expect some increased chemistry with rookie phenom Grant Ament, and can see the Archers putting up 14+ themselves tonight. The total on FoxSportsBet is already at 23.5, and I see the Draft Kings one bumping up as well. Get on this before it moves.
We’re hammering this over, and taking the Archers straight up.
Game 6 – Chrome vs Redwoods (9:30 PM ET – NBCSN)
Spread: Redwoods -1.5 (+110) | Chrome +1.5 (-134)
Total: 24.5 | O -106 | U -115
Moneyline: Redwoods (-139) | Chrome (+115)
These two played twice last year.
Week 4: Redwoods win 13 – 11
Week 8: Redwoods win 18 – 7
Average Total Heads Up: 24.5
Average Redwoods Total 2019: 23
Average Chrome Total 2019: 26.4
The Redwoods look to bounce back from their opening loss after missing out on last night’s game. They have to game plan for the Chrome on the quick turnaround which is going to favor the Chrome somewhat with their extra practice time. With underdogs covering the spread in 3 out of 4 games, and Chrome looking like a new team this year I’m taking them with the points. I still think the Redwoods defense is one of the best in the league and will make it tough on the Chrome, while not being able to get their offense fully going yet either. I’m expecting a close, lower scoring game tonight.
We’re taking the under, and Chrome with the points.
2u on Archers/Waterdogs O22.5 (-115)
1u on Archers ML (-159)
1u on Chrome spread +1.5 (-134)
1u on Chrome/Redwoods U25.5 (-127)
I was able to get in on the last pick at -110 before the odds shifted but would still take it here at -127. We keep saying to bet the unders, time to follow through.
Championship Series so far
- Overall: 1W – 3L
- – 1.11 units
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