With the first weekend of the PLL Championship down we’ve had a chance to see everyone in action except for the Archers. Here’s how things played out
Whipsnakes (-148) beat Redwoods 13 – 9
Chrome (+125) beat Chaos 13 – 9
Atlas (-167) beat Waterdogs 11 – 10
Some things we learned:
- Favorites went 2-1 straight up
- The whipsnakes were the only favorite the cover the spread
- The under hit in all three games
- Two of the lines shifted in our favor from the time of the first article. The Redwoods moved from +120 to +118, and the Waterdogs from +139 all the way to +125. While they didn’t hit I still think getting those lines was strong value.
- Our POTD (2u play) was a homerun. The actual total of 21 wasn’t anywhere close to the set total of 28.5.
Here’s how our picks did over the weekend:
LOSS (-1 unit) Redwoods ML +120
LOSS (-1u) Waterdogs ML +139
WIN (+1.89u) Waterdogs Atlas U28.5 -106 (POTD)
Game 4 – Redwoods vs Chaos (7 PM ET – NBCSN)
Spread: Redwoods -1.5 (+123) / Chaos +1.5 (-150)
Total: 25.5 | O -110 | U -110
Moneyline: Redwoods (-117) / Chaos (-105)
These teams met three separate times last year, twice in the regular season where Chaos pulled out close wins, and again in the semifinals with the Woods picking up the W when it mattered most:
Week 3: Chaos win 12 – 11
Week 9: Chaos win 13 -10
Semifinals: Redwoods win 12 -7
Average Total Heads Up: 21.7
Average Redwoods Total 2019: 23.0
Average Chaos Total 2019: 25.9
The Redwoods -1.5 line opened with odds of +205 and has already moved all the way down to +123. This shifts the breakeven point from 32.8% up to 44.8%. If you got in at +205, I managed to get a 1u bet down at opening, I think it’s great, but I’m not confident with it at the new odds.
Conversely the Chaos shifted from -265 all the way to -150 to cover the +1.5 goals. If you’re a Chaos fan that is looking a lot more enticing right now.
The total being set at 25.5 looks pretty reasonable, but we can see that the three games last year averaged a total of 21.7 and both teams played in games on saturday with totals of 22. We’re sticking with the play the unders until proven wrong here.
The moneyline hasn’t shifted nearly as much as the odds on the 1.5 spread. The woods opened at -121 and are -117 now, with the Chaos going from even to -105.
I think the Redwoods defense has the athletes and discipline to cause problems for the Chaos. I also don’t think their offense is hitting full gear yet, the loss off Jules Heningburg shows and the rest of the O looks like they are still gelling, I expect a better showing as Myles Jones builds chemistry with the team, but am certainly not expecting a barn burner tonight. Overall, the best bet was hands down the weird opening line of +205 for the woods, as evidenced by the massive shift, but with the line shifts I like the Woods moneyline and the under. I think Chaos to cover the spread at the new odds is a reasonable bet as well.
Game 5 – Atlas vs Archers (9:30 PM ET – NBCSN)
Spread: Archers -1.5 (+135) / Atlas +1.5 (-165)
Total: 24.5 | O -121 | U even
Moneyline: Archers (-125) / Atlas (+103)
Atlas and Archers played three times last year. Twice in the regular season and again in the game deciding the 1st draft pick which had the Archers on top in the most lopsided game of the year.
Week 5: Atlas win 13 – 12
Week 8: Archers win 15 – 11
1st pick game: Archers win 25 – 7
Average Total Heads Up: 27.7 (25.5 in regular season)
Average Atlas Total 2019: 25.7
Average Archers Total 2019: 21.6
The Atlas are the first team to play back to back in the Championship Series, this gives the Archers not only the added benefit of fresh legs but game film. They have a chance to break down the Atlas game and find points of attack. The Atlas do enjoy the benefit of having a game under their belt and building some team chemistry with new players, notably star attackman Rob Pannel, but I just think this setup benefits the Archers more. With the +135 odds to cover the -1.5 spread, the Archers have to hit that 42.5% of the time. The Atlas cover defense looked pretty solid last night but they struggled a bit off-ball and at the midfield, two areas that the Archers have the personal to take advantage of. I like the Archers to cover the spread here.
The total of 24.5 is about where I expect more of these to end up by the end of the season, I’m not sure how many more 28.5 and 29.5s we’ll see. The odds favor the under, needing to hit 50% of the time, while the over would have to hit 55% of the time. I think this is a solid line and am personally staying away from it, but if you’re someone who wants to gamble on the over and cheer for goals, I think this is your best spot so far.
On Saturday we mentioned going with unders and underdogs, if you bet one unit on all six you’d have been +2.2u. I’m sticking with the plan of staying away from the overs until we start to see the scoreboard light up some more, but think we can look more at the favorites when the odds are right. I also think with lacrosse betting, and line-setting, in its infancy it’s important to try and find some irregularities much like the Redwoods -1.5 opening at +205. If you want some more quick insights give a follow to @lacrosselocks on twitter. Nothing stands out for a play of the day, so we’re going one unit everywhere today. If lacrosse is your first foray into the sports betting world, a unit is just whatever your standard bet size is. It’s recommended that a unit be between 1-5% of your overall betting bankroll, but if you’re just looking to gamboool it can be whatever you want.
1u on Redwoods ML (-117)
1u Redwoods/Chaos under 25.5 (-110)
1u on Archers -1.5 (+135)
Championship Series so far
- Overall: 1W – 2L
- – 0.11 units