— LCS (@LCSOfficial) April 11, 2020
First I think everyone who plans on watching TSM Vs Flyquest needs to do it on ESPN 2. If you as a fan want esports to be taken seriously unfortunately this is how that happens, don’t get me wrong I wish there was another way to do. ESPN, FS1 all of them have become the butt of a joke in recent years. That is coming from a long time traditional sports fan so don’t jump down my throat. We all know ESPN has become a shell of itself and I mean who watches FS1? I want esports to be respected and like I said this is how that happens on a mainstream level, yes it is totally to do with no actual sports being able to play but you take your shots when you get the chance.
Now onto why we are here. I was wrong last week, Flyquest beat the breaks off of Golden Guardians. That L is on me. That will put me at 18-12 on the split. I didn’t blog the C9 Vs EG game yesterday because we knew the results before the series even started. I’m shocked EG got a game off of C9 but every great team has their holes.
You can watch this weekends games on ESPN2 as well
— Eddie (@EJS_4) April 11, 2020
I know I know. “Eddie you’re the esport betting Nostradamus. Some have been calling you a prophet! Which team do I bet this months rent on?”
Like always we are using the odds off of Bovada, They have TSM at -205 and Flyquest at +150. I base these odds off of Bovada because you don’t need a “guy” to bet if I do it this way. Anyone and everyone has access to Bovada whether you want to bet or just follow up and make sure I’m not lying about the odds. The only reason I’m explaining any of this is because my guy has the odds up early and he usually never does. He has TSM at -189 and Flyquest at +144, not a massive difference but I want to be transparent.
All the boring, probably unneeded shit is out of the way. Lets get to the picks.
TSM and Flyquest are tied 1-1 this split. Both teams had a chance to get the 2 seed and they both shit the bed down the stretch. Flyquest didn’t play well against EG in the winners bracket and lost 3-1 but they stomped Golden Guardians sweeping them out of playoffs. TSM on the other hand only needed to win 1 game in their last 3 to get the 2 seed and spoiler they didn’t do that. They also just played a very very very close series against a scorching hot 100 Thieves team beating them 3-2. If you look at the first time TSM and Flyquest played it was all the way back in week and really close. Back then Flyquest looked like the second best team in the league and TSM was going to miss playoffs unless they turned it around. Match up numero dos TSM won in another close game. Not as close and not as long but it was close nonetheless.
If you look at the individual match ups I think the combo of bot lane favors TSM. I think Bjergsen is playing really well right now so I would lean him but P.O.E is a problem. Mid lane might be a wash. If BrokenBlade can avoid running it down he should be able to smash either Viper or SOLO. That brings up another point, Flyquest is deep in the playoffs and can’t decide on a top laner to go with and it isn’t because they’re both playing well. I think the only clear win, on paper, for Flyquest is in the jungle. Dardoch isn’t what he used to be and honestly once the offseason starts up I would be shocked if they don’t move on from him, I don’t care if he in under contract until the end of Summer 2021.
Knowing the odds, knowing the recent games, knowing the match up individually I think it would be foolish not to put money on TSM.
I don’t care that they ended 9-9. I don’t care that they started the playoffs in the Losers bracket. I don’t care about anything, TSM is pretty clearly the second best team in the LCS, at least on paper. I fully expect TSM to win the series and us money. I would say probably in 4 games. They shouldn’t need 5 but Flyquest shouldn’t be getting swept either.