With news that the NCAA tourney & all other sports have been postponed indefinitely – I began slipping into a depression. That was until it dawned on me that this allows us to do something we love even more than watching sports – arguing about sports. So let’s cheer ourselves up by looking at NFL contract disputes, specifically Dak Prescott & the Dallas Cowboys.
Dak Prescott is about to get PAID, no doubt about it. In this day and age – the average NFL quarterback gets paid much more than he deserves (cc. Sam Bradford).
This week it was reported that Dak Prescott turned down a $33 million per year contract – which would make him the 4th highest paid QB in the league annually.
It seems Dak wants more money annually than Jared Goff ($33.5 M), but are the Cowboy’s willing to pay that much for Dak Prescott?
I have no idea what the Cowboys will do, nor do I have much faith in Jerry and company to make the correct decision. As a life long Cowboy’s fan, its tough to ignore the many many many mistakes Jerry has made in the past.
Not to dwell on the past but a few that come to mind: firing Jimmy, hiring Dave Campo, starting backfield of Quincy Carter & Troy Hambrick, & that’s not even getting into the Jason Garrett era. Damn.
Well let’s take a look at the numbers and see how terrible a decision it would be to pay Dak Aaron Rodgers type money.
The first visual is a scatter plot that compares yearly salary (x-axis) & TD to INT ratio (y-axis). This is an attempt to see if we can determine how valuable each QB is at their particular price point. Don’t worry if it seems confusing just focus on the 7 categories.
As you can see from the viz above – there are 7 different categories.
- Elite: These QBs are expensive and well worth it.
- Best Value: These QBs are elite but still on their rookie contract.
- Great Value: These QBs perform above average & don’t make a lot of money.
- Good Value: These QBs are expensive but perform above average.
- Bad Value: These QBs do not perform up to standards based on contract price.
- Terrible Value: Below average QBs that get paid too much.
- Garbage / Young: A mix of both bad QBs & young QBs that havent had a chance to shine.
I utilized Jared Goff’s yearly salary to simulate where 2020 Dak would be, since this seems like the minimum amount Dak would be willing to accept.
Dak immediately goes from a great value QB to a bad value QB. This obviously has a ripple down effect on the team. Once the Cowboys pay Dak this much money, they cannot afford secondary and tertiary players that are pivotal to success. So we can kiss players like Byron Jones, Amari Cooper, and others good bye.
The second visual is another attempt to see if we can quantify QB value. I took TD to INT ratio & divided it by yearly contract. To make the numbers more normal I then multiplied that by 1 million. This will show us what QBs are actually worth their price according to TD to INT ratio.
As you can see from the viz – the slightly above average QBs are generally over paid & the great QBs on rookie deals are underpaid. The QB market is all out of wack.
For today, let’s focus only on Dak Prescott & where he would fall if the Cowboys were to drop a bag at Dak’s door step.
2019 Dak is the second most valuable QB behind the enigma that is Gardner Minshew. The difference between these 2 is that Dak has a MUCH larger sample size than Gardner – meaning we can say that Dak is easily the most valuable QB in the league for what he gets paid today.
Well if were to bump his salary to Jared Goff level – he immediately drops to the bottom 10 of this list. Of this bottom 10 – Jimmy G & Carson Wentz were the only QBs on teams that made the playoffs last season. That is not a good sign for the Cowboys.
So how much is Dak actually worth? I wouldn’t pay him anywhere near this amount, but he realistically should get around 2019 Tom Brady money ($23 M).
In reality he will get $35M+ per year & the Cowboys will stink for the remainder of the contract.
Well, this started out as a piece to cheer me up because the Tourney is canceled but now I’m even more depressed than earlier thinking about the Cowboys future with Dak and Jerry leading the way.
Come back live sports, we miss you already.