Over the last few weeks, I have put out a breakdown of each AFC division; who will be good, who will suck, when to bet on and against each team, and season win totals. It was a ton of fun to write all of those columns, but I have been dealing with an issue in real life that took away the free time I would have normally had to do the same thing for the NFC. However, I would never leave you hanging; this column is for all NFC season totals that we are on.
To recap, I mentioned a bunch of leans in the individual AFC columns, but the BIG plays we are on are:
Indy over 7.5
Indy to win the division +450
Oakland Under 6.5 -200
Cincy Under 6.5 -180
Yes, the juice is now high on many of those totals, but you only pay juice if you lose. And no way is Oakland or Cincy a 7-9 team. Now, to go along with those AFC best bets, here are some strong win totals from the NFC.
Eagles over 9.5 -200
When this line first came out, you could bet on this at even money, which was a steal. Action has caused the juice to raise all the way up to -200, but as I mentioned earlier, you only pay juice if you lose. If the Eagles win less than 10 games this year, it will be a colossal failure. Last year, everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Eagles, and they still managed to finish 9-6 and sneak into the playoffs. With a healthy MVP caliber QB in Wentz and an offense that has as much depth as any in the NFL, the Eagles are going to be a force to reckon with, barring a major injury. You are essentially laying -200 that Wentz doesn’t suffer a season ending injury. If he does, 10-6 is the absolute floor.
New Orleans Saints under 10.5 -154
I am pretty on board the “Drew Brees is just about done” wagon. Brees’ last two months of 2018 looked a lot like the final years of Peyton Manning’s career, when passes quacked their way towards receivers. Aside from Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, who are bona fide superstars, the offense seems to be lacking weapons, and I am convinced Brees is no longer at the point of his career where he can make random nobodys productive. Looking at their schedule, there is really only one game, at home vs the Cardinals, that you can say for certain that the Saints will win. Their division is tough, and I am a fan of both Carolina and Tampa Bay to be competitive this year. Non-division road games see the Saints traveling to play the Rams, Jaguars, Bears, and Titans.
When you combine the toughness of the Saints schedule and division with some expected Drew Brees regression, it is very hard to see this team finish at 11-5. Take the Under.
Unfortunately, that is all we got for you. Season win totals are fun, but like I say constantly about gambling, don’t force things that aren’t there. We have some solid sides here in both conferences that I really can’t see losing, even if we are laying a ton of vig. These five team total plays are going to go 4-1 at worst, and the Colts to win the division prop is a fun plus money dart throw.
Stay tuned for our Week 1 column in the next day or so, and if reading isn’t your thing, our plays will be posted on Twitter @BrandedBets and you’ll even get some videos of my ugly face. Let’s go guys and gals, the season is officially upon us.