Playoff Record: 0-1
Yeah, my Ravens pick last week was not great
. It is what it is. One thing to remember; during the playoffs the slates are much smaller and all teams are at least decent. There are usually not bad lines the way there can be in the regular season. I recommend scaling back a little bit, unless you really like a side or total as much as you would for a normal play. For playoff games, use the same rule of thumb that I always say for Tuesday and Monday night games; if you wouldn’t bet that game if it were part of a full slate, don’t bet it now just because. I do like two plays this week. I do not like them as much as I generally need to like a play to post it in this column. So just consider that. If you want to wager a few bucks to make the game more interesting, go for it. But unless you have the same confidence in a play that you would if it were one of 8 games starting at 1pm during week 7, then don’t go too nuts. We won a lot during the regular season, now is not the time to blow it!
Enough babbling, on to the plays
Kansas City Chiefs -5 vs Indianapolis Colts
Since before the season started, I thought the Chiefs were a juggernaut. I can honestly say that I saw this coming from Pat Mahomes; ok, maybe not the best season in NFL history, but I loved how his skill set matched up so well with his group of weapons and I knew this team was going to be special. Since they haven’t played in what seems like forever (it’s been two weeks but that is forever in football time)and it is easy to forget how good they were. I don’t care about Andy Reid’s playoff history; yes he has blown games but he usually waits until the Conference Championship to do that. I don’t care about the lack of Kareem Hunt; Damien Williams has been almost as good. I don’t care how good the Colts looked last week, I love this team, they have a great coach, a great QB and a ton of cap space; they are going to be good for a long time. But look at the teams they have beaten this year. Seriously, take a second, I’ll wait. Their best win was against the Blaine Gabbert-led Titans. The Chiefs are in a different class than the Colts, and they are going to win something along the lines of 38-24. Everybody wants to bet on underdogs in the post season, and I get it, its fun and we want to see close games and upsets. But in this case, lay the favorite!
Dallas Cowboys/Los Angeles Rams under 50
If you have read my column on this site, or listened or read any of my NFL betting content over the past five years, you know one thing (ok, two things, because you know I am a degenerate); I hate betting unders. Not only is it not fun to watch games and root for defensive stops and get mad when big plays occur, but it’s also betting against the direction that the league is going with offense taking the forefront. In this case, though, I have to bite the bullet, because this line is too high. I trust that Jason Garrett knows that if they get into a shootout, the Cowboys are going to lose (which is ironic if you have ever watched a John Wayne movie). Their bell cow is their running back, and I expect them to feed Zeke all day to move the chains, extend drives and keep the clock running. Even on the Rams side of the ball, their offense has not been as explosive since Cooper Kupp was lost for the year, and Jared Goff is still extremely unproven in the post-season (granted, he has one game under his belt). I think this is going to be a pretty good game and be close throughout, but no team is scoring 30. Let’s call it 23-19 Rams. Cowboys games have gone over 50 total points two times all season.
That’s it for me this week, sadly if you want to have any action on Sunday, you must look elsewhere. I don’t like any sides or totals Sunday, although that Chargers/Pats game may be the most fun of the weekend, I have no idea what is going to happen there. So I recommend staying away or betting in-game. As always follow me on twitter @Gamblin_Dan88 where I will post in-game wagers, player props, and bets on other sports. Enjoy the weekend and Go Birds!
— Jay Wright (@VUCoachJWright) January 11, 2019