Week 16: 2-0
Season: 34-24-2 (58.6%)
It is absolutely mind blowing that the NFL regular season has come and gone. It feels like yesterday I was reaching out to Branded’s leader Joe asking if he would be interested in a weekly gambling column. He agreed, and while most of my columns have been short and sweet, my first one was the size of a novel. I explained my betting mantra and how I take an honest, sharp and disciplined approach to the hobby. I am never the guy to go see if you want a GUARANTEED FIVE STAR LOCK OF THE YEAR!!! But I am the guy to go see if you want solid analysis of a game from both a statistical and situational perspective. I also mentioned that my goal for every season is 60%, even though that is quite lofty for an entire season. Most professional bettors hit between 54-57% over the long run, but why not aim for the stars.
The season has gone about as well as I could have hoped, and while action junkies may not like that I only made 60 plays over the course of 16 seasons, I believe being selective is key to making money in the long run. The crazy thing is, after last week, I have a legitimate shot to end the season at 60%. A 2-0 week would bring me to my goal, so that is what I am going for here. Worst case scenario I end up at 56.6% which is still something to be proud of. So no matter what, this regular season was a success.
I will be back for playoff picks, but I will count them separately, so join me this week with my final two plays of the regular season, and my attempt to finish the season at the 60% benchmark.
Moneyline Parlay: Chiefs/Patriots/Steelers/Seahawks/Clemson -104
It can get difficult to find good plays in the last few weeks of the season, because you never know who is going to show up and who is going to have no interest in being on the field. The safe thing to do in these spots is to look for teams who you know will be bringing their A game who are playing teams with little to no motivation. In fact, many of them want to lose to secure a better draft pick. These 4 NFL sides all should win the game easily, and I threw in Clemson from the college card a) to bring the odds down to something I am comfortable laying and b) as a shout out to KMess!
Dallas Cowboys/New York Giants under 41
It’s pretty crazy that my final play of the season is an under, considering I never play unders. But this spot is just too good to ignore. Dallas is claiming publicly that they are going to play to win the game, despite having their playoff position locked up, but I call bullshit. Maybe Dak and Zeke play one drive, but if Jason Garrett has any brains (which is debatable), he will bench his studs and protect them from injury. The Giants also have nothing to play for aside from draft position. With Odell Beckham Jr out, they will probably run the ball as much as possible to give Saquon Barkley a final push in his Rookie of the Year race with Baker Mayfield. Overall, this game feels a lot like a preseason game, and I expect a lot of sloppy play, a lot of running the ball, and very little scoring. Giants 17 Cowboys 10.
That’ll do it, lets get this 2-0 and lets get that 60%! See you next week for the playoffs.