Last Week 2-1
Season: 32-24-2 (57.1%)
Another Sunday, another winning week for me and you if you have been wise enough to follow me this season. My ego is growing with my bankroll. Not only and I winning wagers, I am hitting the nail on the head with my write-ups. I told you the Cowboys were going to show up to Indianapolis flatter than a witches tit (this is a real simile). I also told you that Seattle was in a bad spot traveling to San Francisco, and called for the Niners win OUTRIGHT!
Yeah, I told you the Patriots/Steelers game would be a slugfest, but you can’t win em all can you?
We only have two weeks of regular season action to go, and hopefully some good betting spots. In general, these final two weeks can be tough as teams with nothing to play for mentally check out. As you will see, the best way to take advantage of that is with moneyline parlays. It’s never fun laying double digits, but why not take advantage of the teams who aren’t even trying.
As always, the goal is to win every bet, but my realistic goal is always 56%, which so far, so good on the season. 60% would be amazing, but it is going to take a flawless final two weeks to approach that number. Overall, lets just enjoy these last two weeks and keep the train rolling.
Moneyline Parlay: New England Patriots/Indianapolis Colts/Los Angeles Rams/Cleveland Browns -115
These are four teams that are laying a ton of points, but when you moneyline parlay them, you just need them all to win outright. I can’t spot a loss in this group. The Patriots have had their struggles, but it is hard to see them losing at home to the Bills. The Colts get the Giants at home, and it looks like that cute run of competence for the Giants is over and Odell Beckham Jr is officially out of the lineup again. The Rams will shake off last weeks stumble against the Cardinals, who are probably the worst team in the league at this point. And while a year ago it would be crazy to feel this confident in a Browns win, I think they really stick it to Hue Jackson and a Jeff Driskel-led Bengals team. When you put it together, the odds come to -115, and this one should hit easily.
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Hawks are going to win this game. Kansas City took the league by storm this season, and I do think they will be right there in the post-season, but they have not been nearly as invincible as they once looked. Their offense is good enough that they can plug in any running back in Kareem Hunt’s absence and get some production, but it isn’t the same. This is a terrible spot for them, playing in the stadium that has the best Home Field Advantage in the game. Seattle lost last week, and we called that one, but now they get to come home and play a game they are 1000x more fired up for then they were to face Nick Mullens. I expect Chris Carson to run all over a very weak KC run defense while milking the clock and keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible.
Last week I talked about how the backbone of my handicapping is looking at spots. This is a horrid spot for KC and a great one for the Seahawks. The wrong team is favored in this one, Seahawks win OUTRIGHT!