- The current Vegas line: Eagles -1
This line has been all over the place. It started at Texans -1.5, then it moved all the way to Eagles -2.5, and now it has settled in at Eagles -1. I’m sure it will move again before kickoff.
“On the other hand, if a team opens at -3.5 and rapidly moves to -4.5 or -5, this is more than likely a case in which “smart” money is on the favorite, as the line needed to be adjusted as soon as possible. Even though you may have missed out on the best line in these cases, there may still be value in the side the “smart” money appears to be on, so it is definitely worth a closer look.”
Here is their prediction:
Another solid piece of information is that this game is basically split evenly down the middle with 51% of the public on the Texans.
- Eagles O-line vs Texans D-line
This is the matchup of the week. The Eagles were able to hold sacks leader Aaron Donald and co. without a sack for only the second time all year. They will have another tough test with J.J Watt (14.5 sacks) and Jadeveon Clowney (8 sacks) on Sunday.
Getting the ball out quick will be key…
- Texans defense is good, but not great
They have a great pass rush, but other than that, this Texans defense is a mixed bag.
They are 4th in the league against the run allowing only 88.3 YPG, but are 26th against the pass allowing 258.3 YPG.
They bend by allowing 346.6 YPG, but don’t break as they are allowing just 20.1 PPG.
The Eagles will need to take advantage of two glaring weaknesses. On third down the Texans are ranked 19th in the league allowing teams to convert 39.9 % of the time. They also rank 30th in the league in opponent red zone scoring percentage, allowing teams to score a TD 73.68 % of the time.
The Eagles have to cash in when they are in the red zone!
I would also expect Doug Pederson and Nick Foles to go back to the deep ball this week…
- Deandre Hopkins
It’s going to be tough to contain Deandre Hopkins. He went off for 10/170/2 last week. But that was the first time he went over 100 yards since week 9 and has only gone over 100 yards five times this season. If the Eagles can CONTAIN Hopkins, they will win this game.
- Eagles D-line vs the Texans O-line.
Rams center John Sullivan is still having nightmares about Fletcher Cox abusing him.
The Texans offensive line stinks. They are PFF’s 25th ranked unit.
Deshaun Watson has been sacked 52 times this season, that’s the most in the league.
One way to contain Deandre Hopkins is to put consistent pressure on Watson.
I have a good feeling about this game. I don’t think the Texans are as good as their record indicates. I also think the Eagles have an enormous advantage with their d line vs the Texans o line.
I could see this being a tight game throughout, but in the end the Eagles will keep their season alive.
Eagles 23, Texans 20