First off, I would like to issue an apology for last week. I did not post a column, as I spent the holiday weekend in East Bumblefuck with relatives who own a computer that would have been considered out of date in 1999. However, if you follow @branded_sports on Twitter as you should, or myself @GamblinDan88, as you also should, you would have gotten my picks that went 2-1 with an outrageous loss on Carolina, who led almost the entire game until the very end.
This brings my season record to 24-19-2. That is 55.6%, and while the record doesn’t look like anything special at first glance, 55.6% is extremely high for a season’s worth of NFL bets. We are in the stretch run now, and my goal is to finish strong for you guys, and for my own bankroll. Thus far, we have won a few units, avoided many of the “traps” that common bettors fall into, and, if you follow me correctly, displayed excellent money management. This column has been a great success so far, but we still need to finish strong, so let’s get it.
To start things off for Week 13, we are going back to an open teaser I had previously posted, all the way back in Week 8. The first two legs hit with ease, and we will close this teaser off with:
Seattle Seahawks pk vs San Francisco 49ers
Now you may say “Degenerate Dan, what the hell is this, you are saying we had to take six weeks to complete one, standard unit bet?” and to that, I say “Damn right.” I don’t care about instant gratification, I care about winning. I have left teasers open for months before and I will do it again. The reason teasers are considered sucker bets is because most people don’t know how to bet them properly, and think they need to choose only games from the current slate. Or if they don’t think that they need to do that, they choose to because they are impulsive and want to get the win or loss sooner rather than later. Not I, I love utilizing the “open side” and have an extremely strong track record of doing so. We’re gonna close this baby out with Seattle pk vs San Francisco; because Nick Mullens (or CJ Beathard) is not going into Seattle, who has earned their way back into the playoff race, and winning on their home field.
3 Team Moneyline Parlay: Pittsburgh Steelers/KC Chiefs/Appalachian State pays +106
That’s right, we are dipping out toes into the NCAA pool this year! I generally do like to keep this to an NFL only column, but in this case I really like this spot for the Steelers, but I did not want to risk losing this bet because they won by a field goal, so I parlayed the moneyline with two other heavy favorites who are not going to lose. Appy State plays Saturday guys, so make sure to get this in in time. I like this tactic to avoid the dreaded scenario when you bet a small favorite and they win but do not cover. Now, I just need the Steelers to win outright which I think they do. I have been excellent at recognizing spots when Ben is going to suck and when Ben is going to be great, and this is a great spot at home against a west coast team. He won’t have to criticize his teammates after this one.
Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I talk often about not being a square, and generally like to fade the public. In this case, I am joining everybody and their mother on the Colts, a hot team in a playoff hunt against a team whos starting QB was just benched and star RB was just suspended for fighting like a 1920s gangster.
Betting is, essentially, playing a game of “what is more likely to happen?” I am willing to wager that Andrew Luck is going to be able to out-duel Cody Kessler. I am ok with losing if something crazy happens.
Just for the sake of humor, I have to show this; somebody made a Cody Kessler highlight video. I guess Cody’s family has a lot of time on their hands.
Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs the Buffalo Bills
This is WAY too much respect for a Buffalo team that might be the worst 4-7 team of all time. I know they have a good defense, but I am not ready to trust Josh Allen in a road game. Heck, I am not willing to trust Josh Allen, period. I don’t care if he ran for 99 yards and beat the terrible Jags last year and Allen was looking at Bortles like
The Dolphins are certainly more of a pretender than a contender, but as long as they are in the hunt for a playoff spot, which they are now, you know motivation won’t be an issue. But rather than try to find reasons why the Dolphins are worth betting on, which there are not many, I am making this play as a good old fashioned fade of a team that has somehow won a few games but my eyeballs tell me is complete garbage. And I will straight up admit that Josh Allen hasn’t been the dumpster fire I thought he would be, but when your receiving options look like cast members from The Replacements, I am going to fade you on the road under a touchdown every time.
Detroit Lions +10 vs LA Rams
This isn’t a fun side to play, but I have to take the 10 points with the home team here. The Lions are not a good team, but even missing a few of their weapons, I would not put them in the “deserves to get 10 points at home” territory. The Rams have just two double digit road wins and they have come against the 49ers and the Raiders, two teams that have terrible offenses. I trust Matt Stafford & Co to do just enough here to get the cover, as the Rams don’t need any style points. After already losing Cooper Kupp for the season, their goal for this game is going to be to get in, get the win, and get out, with no need to run up the score.
That’s what we got for this week. Let’s keep up the winning ways!