Last Week: 2-0
I will take a 2-0 week any day. Combined with the fact that sports books had one of their worst weeks of all time and we still came out on top. Remember, if you follow my plays, we are usually going to lose when the public wins, and win when the public loses.
Having done this for many years, I know that the books don’t stay down for very long. They have now been crushed 2 of the last 3 Sundays, and that will not last. There is going to be a public bloodbath week soon; I am not sure if it is this week but it certainly could be. There is going to be a week where these road favorites stop winning and a few sides that have 70%+ of the public action lose. Knowing this, we will tread lightly and be sure not to fall into any traps.
Cleveland Browns +6 vs Atlanta Falcons
Let’s hold the phone on labeling the Falcons as revived just yet. Sure, the team is 4-4 and coming off three straight wins after a brutal start that saw many important players, especially on defense, go down with injuries. On paper, it looks like the Falcons have righted the ship, but forgive me if I am not getting too excited about wins against the Buccaneers at home, just getting by the Giants at home, and beating a Washington team that I think is a fraud (more on that later).
Six points is just too much for this team to be laying on the road. It is easy to forget how scrappy the Browns were in the beginning of the season and how many ties and near-ties they had; but the fact that the last two weeks they have been crushed by KC and Pittsburgh has washed that from peoples’ minds. It now looks like the two teams who handled them may be the top two teams in the AFC. And the Browns were going through a coaching change. I think Cleveland is going to put up a good fight and keep this one close.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs Washington Redskins
photo-NBC Sports Washington
On paper, a division leader is a three point underdog on the road against a 3-5 team, and that doesn’t look right. However, when you look at the state of both teams, it becomes clear that Tampa Bay should blow out this Washington team. The Skins are down two guards and have signed replacements off the street. Paul Richardson is out and while they were a nice story, Adrian Peterson and Alex Smith have been showing their age recently. Tampa Bay, if nothing else, has an excellent offense and at home against a team decimated by injuries, I expect them to run away with this game.
This is a great opportunity to fade Washington.
Tennessee Titans +7 vs New England Patriots
I have sworn off betting against the Patriots at any line under a touchdown, so this game just barely meets my criteria for a play. But I really do like this Titans team that looks to finally be playing well on the field after years of having a talented roster but terrible coaching.
New England is a great team, no question, but going into their bye week, their goal is going to be to get everybody in and out of Tennessee uninjured. Gronk may or may not play, but he is clearly not himself.
I just think this is too many points for a good team at home. 83% of the tickets are on the Patriots, which makes me feel good about being with the books. This isnt the 2007 Patriots; this is an excellent but imperfect team that is capable of losing games it shouldn’t. I could really see the Titans pulling the upset outright here, but i will gladly take a touchdown to work with.
That is all in terms of plays. We are going 3-0 and the Eagles are going to destroy the Cowboys. As always, follow me on Twitter at my new name: @GamblinDan88. I decided to start fresh on twitter, focus on quality of quantity, and really make these bets the main focus of my account. Be sure to follow for in-game bets and any potential prime time game adds.
Lets have a killer Week 10!