Last week 1-4
Look, there is no way around it; last week I sucked. Todd Gurley did me no favors; as I was one of many who’s weekly outcome was impacted by this
Now it can’t be denied that if Gurley did go into the end zone, the Rams would have covered the spread and my brutal 1-4 week would have been a poor but not awful 2-3. This play was crazy; it impacted the side and the total. It is easy to be frustrated over it, but there are two things to remember; the Rams had no business even having the ball at that point, and also, Gurley did the right thing. It’s easy to forget that these players don’t care about our fantasy teams or our spread bets. They don’t care about our parlays or our player prop wagers. They care about one thing, winning the game. Gurley did the right thing for his team, so as angry as I was in the moment:
But after calming down from the heat of the moment, it was undeniably a smart play.
After Week 8’s unfortunate results, there is nothing I would love more than to get back on track with a 7-1 beast week. However, as I have preached almost weekly, the fastest way to lose money is by forcing wagers, and this card does not have much value. What this card does have is many great games, and there is a way to fulfill your degenerate tendencies without flipping a coin; wagering in-game.
In this day and age, most sports books offer in game wagering. For me, it has been a game changer. For those who are unfamiliar, in game wagering is when you can bet on a game as it is going on, with lines adjusted based on what has already happened. Every now and then, a heavy favorite shows up unprepared against a crappy team and finds themselves down 10-0. In situations like this, you can bet on that team to win in-game at a much lower spread than the original line. Or, if you think an underdog is going to keep a game close, and they are down early, you can get more points than you did before the game.
If your book does not offer this, it is time to find one that is up with the times. I bring this up now because I think there is a good chance that this week will present some opportunities. Most of the games this weekend look like they are going to be tough, hard-fought matchups, so it could be profitable to look for lines after the first team scores. I will post what I am playing in-game on Twitter, so follow me if you are interested, you can use the link above for my bio. However, overall, in-game betting is something you have to develop your own feel for; by the time you see my posts or get a text from a buddy, the line could be gone
Aside from in-game betting, there are two straight wagers that I like this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers over 54.5
I can’t stand stomaching betting unders in the NFL, so when looking at totals, I generally look for games that I think will be a shootout. I think that is the case here, I already love fading the Bucs defense especially on the road, but now that Fitzmagic has the starting job back, I expect them to put up points as well. In theory, the Panthers defense is not bad, but they gave up 31 to the New York Giants at home; how is that even possible? I think the Panthers are going to have a field day and if you play Daily Fantasy, I can’t recommend Cam/McCaffrey/Funchess more, and I even think DJ Moore is a great value play. I think this ends up being a 34-28 type game.
Tennessee Titans +5.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Somehow, the Cowboys are still one of the if not the most popular teams in America and are clinging on to the “America’s Team” nickname. Yes, there a ton of people who still root for them because Emmitt Smith was cool when they were 7 and they had a cuck father who allowed them to adopt this shit franchise as their favorite team. Because of this, books know that the public will generally want to bet on the Boys, and that can lead to inflated lines.
This line is off; the Cowboys are not 5.5 points better than the Titans; they might not be better at all. It remains to be seen whether or not Amari Cooper can produce for the Cowboys the way he has in past years for the Raiders, but even if he ends up being great, you have to think that it is going to take time to develop chemistry with Dak Prescott. All in all, I see this as a run-heavy close game that should be decided by a field goal on either side. Take the points, and don’t be surprised if the Titans win the game.
That is all for the week; with six teams on a bye and a lot of good match-ups, there is not a ton of value to be had, but hopefully we can enjoy watching some really good games on Sunday, win these two wagers, and look for some value in in-game lines.