0-1 Last Week
16-11-2 on the season
Look, an 0-1 week isn’t great no matter how you spin it. Having said that, I have never been happier to have a losing week in my life. In my column last week, I mentioned that I had a bad feeling. As a bettor who usually wagers on “sharp” sides, I said I had a feeling that something just wasn’t right. To quote that column;
I clearly love home underdogs and short favorites, hate laying points with road teams, and I clearly like to take sides that most of the general public will be against. I want very badly to bet on the Bears +3 at home against the Pats. I am tempted to take the Ravens -2.5 at home against the Saints. I am aching so hard to jump on the Jets at home getting a field goal and a half at home against the Vikings.
But I am not going to pull the trigger on any of those. These kind of plays have been so money this year, but like anything in the world of gambling, these things tend to eventually regress towards the mean. So I am staying away. I think the public sheep are going to have a good week.
Well, my intuition was spot on. Those plays would have been 0-3 and the week would have been a nightmare. Instead, we escaped with a losing but non-disastrous week. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make. I’m ready to roll again for Week 8 and get back on the winning track.
Warning; write-ups will be shorter than usual today; I am hungover as shit from a Halloween party last night. In fairness, I crushed it.
https://twitter.com/Eagles_Dan88/status/1056322049541632001
Addition to the open teaser we started two weeks ago: Pats -4 at Buffalo
Easy play here. If you recall, two weeks ago I opened a 3 team,10 point teaser with the Vikings, which hit easily, and two open spots. We are going to fill one of those spots with the Pats, who should beat the Bills by 100.
Baltimore Ravens -2 at Carolina Panthers
I generally am not a fan of betting on short road favorites but this is an exception. This is a matchup nightmare for Carolina, and they are coming off two road wins that were not as impressive as the box score indicates.
Detroit Lions -3 vs Seattle Seahawks
It’s almost like the bye week gave fans and linesmakeors time to forget how bad the Seahawks are this year. The Lions and their three beast WRs are going to tear apart the once feared defense.
Indianapolis Colts -3 at Oakland Raiders
The line is shady and so is the lack of line movement, but you kind of have to fade the Raiders now; they have traded many of their assets and the rest are either hurt or having awkward disputes with the team.
Ben Roethlisberger defends David Carr's crying during a game https://t.co/Sj1yiX0HY9
— Touchdown Wire (@TheNFLWire) October 24, 2018
LA Rams -8 vs Green Bay Packers
I love fading public dogs. Everyone is talking about how this is the largest underdog Aaron Rodgers has ever been in his career. The public seems to think he will keep it close. Come on guys, this guy needed late game heroics to beat CJ Beathard at home. Fade the public underdog here, Rams roll.
Minnesota Vikings +2 vs New Orleans Saints
This game should be great, but give me a good team as a home underdog any day. The Saints are a contender in the NFC, but they are far from a perfect team, and I think Drew Brees is going to struggle on the road in a hostile environment. Home team wins OUTRIGHT!