3-0 last week.
4-0 technically but I voided my Dolphins play because the line changed by the time I posted it. That’s how fucking red hot I am, folks; the line moved 3 points against me because of an injury and I still hit the bet. But I do believe honesty and I did not want to be that guy who counted that as a win if it hit but, if the Bears beat Brock Osweiler, came back this week and said it doesn’t count. I am a cocky degenerate, but I have honor. Sadly that puts me above 95% of those who post picks on the internet.
16-10-2 on the season (61.5%)
Ya boy is the hottest capper in the game right now Those who read this column weekly are lucky to have stumbled upon a dude who just gets it. And I am going to keep crushing all season long, that is a promise!
But there is a small issue; this week’s card blows donkey nuts. I’ll be real with you; when I write this column, I want to give you guys what you want; entertaining content and a handful of games to bet on. But I also take the craft of sports handicapping very seriously. If you read my first column of the season, I wrote about discipline. I can joke about how great I am, but any asshole can go 3-0 one week. Hell any idiot can get lucky and stumble onto a winning season even if they don’t know shit.
Books know this is the case. What they count on is those people getting too cocky and allowing their success to impact their discipline, and eventually lose everything back. Handicapping is a long term exercise; the results of a small sample size means nothing. I have seen professional handicappers have losing years. Even a year isn’t a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions. So what is my point? I am not letting the books take back any of the money I earned so far this year, and this card has epic disaster written all over it. I clearly love home underdogs and short favorites, hate laying points with road teams, and I clearly like to take sides that most of the general public will be against. I want very badly to bet on the Bears +3 at home against the Pats. I am tempted to take the Ravens -2.5 at home against the Saints. I am aching so hard to jump on the Jets at home getting a field goal and a half at home against the Vikings.
But I am not going to pull the trigger on any of those. These kind of plays have been so money this year, but like anything in the world of gambling, these things tend to eventually regress towards the mean. So I am staying away. I think the public sheep are going to have a good week. I think these sharper home dogs are going to have more trouble this week than in recent weeks. And I think that a lot of dumb bettors are going to win a lot of money this week. So I am going to sit it out; if I am wrong, so be it, but I am not going to let this card crush me. I am making one play this week, and one play only. And while that is not what you guys want to see, I have a win percentage to uphold. And when the public hits big this week and have a lot of cash to reinvest into the coming weeks, we will be there to win the sharp money.
My one play:
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs over 58
For a guy who just spun off about being sharp, a prime time over is about as square as a play gets, but screw it, until the books have the balls to post these totals in the 60’s, I am going to keep exploiting it. Kansas City has been the story of the NFL season so far and rightfully so. They have an exciting, high powered offense led by a man sent from heaven with the sole purpose of playing quarterback, Pat Mahomes. They also have a god awful defense. This leads to lots of overs. They have played games in the 60s and 70s anytime they have played an offense with a pulse. Last Sunday they eclipsed 80 against the Patriots. And the Bengals certainly have a pulse. Andy Dalton is playing the best ball of his life, AJ Green is a stud, Joe Mixon is breaking out in a big way, and Tyler Boyd has given the WR corps a great second option. Last week, they were in a similar situation; on the road against a team with a shitty defense but a really good offense. They lost to the Falcons and the over hit with ease. I don’t see any reason why that won’t happen again.
Over/unders over 60 are the norm in college football, but have been all but unheard of in the NFL. As the pro game is changing and being more influenced by college style of play, more and more points are being scored. Eventually, lines makers will adapt, but for the time being they are still hesitant to go over 60 with a total. As long as that is the case, we will continue to make bank.