Week 5: 5-2
Let’s just be real, I try to be humble, but last week kicked ass. I was 5-2 and as I mentioned in my column, I’m just feelin it right now. We still have a long way to go, but I believe last week was the turning point in the season; its all winners from here on out baby. Of course, I can’t get too full of myself; always gotta stay humble
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Atlanta Falcons over 57
The NFL is making it difficult for us bettors who love to bet on the over by setting totals higher than ever before. Hell, the Chiefs/Pats game is 59! I actually like the over of both games, but this one is the one that gets the official seal of approval from yours truly. Much has been made about the Falcons defense; not a bad unit when everyone is healthy but right now hardly anybody is healthy and their secondary is made up of guys who should be working for Navient trying to get you to pay your student loans that you desperately try to ignore. Their offense is not great on the road, but they are unreal at home and their last two home games since these injuries started piling up have gone over 70, so this game should be in the 60s easily.
Miami Dolphins +4 vs Chicago Bears
(Edit: at the time this column ran, at 11:00am on Sunday morning, this line has moved to Chicago -6.5, as Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the Dolphins. Brock Osweiler will start in his place. Because of this information, this play will not be counted, win or lose, as the line has moved well before this column posted.)
I get it, the Bears are a fun team to root for. They have a hot shot young head coach and people want to pretend they are this years Rams. They pilfered Khalil Mack from John Gruden and their QB is a fun bro with hobbies we all can relate to
How can you not root for a guy like this?! Having said all that, this is not a team nor is Trubisky a QB who deserves to be laying 4 points on the road to a team with a pulse. The Dolphins sure don’t feel like a team that should be 3-2, but they showed competence before a tough two game road trip which has most of the public thinking they were just a fluke. They will keep this one close at the very least.
Washington Racist Names +1 vs Carolina Panthers
This is a classic example of a game where if you showed the lines to your drunk uncle Frank, he would assure you that the Panthers are a lock. I will take any chance to fade the public, and the public will be all over Cam’s boys here. Now granted, Washington’s running back situation is making me a little uneasy, as both Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are on the injury report, but hey, sometimes you gotta have faith in Kapri Bibbs! We all saw Washington suck ass on MNF against New Orleans, but that was a brutal spot with Brees setting the record; the Saints were not losing that game. This Washington team is not bad and destroyed the Packers at home. Meanwhile, it is easy to forget that it took a 63 yard boom from Graham Gano to beat the poopy Giants, who put up 31 points on this defense. The Giants shouldn’t score 31 points all season with their offense. Washington gets a home win here.
Denver Broncos +7 vs Los Angeles Rams
This is my favorite play of the week. I get it, the Broncos suck. The Rams are awesome. Should be an easy LA win. Or so you think. The Rams are banged up at the WR position and could be without Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, or both. Meanwhile, it is going to be 20 degrees and snowy. It is going to be a tough, grind it out type game with a lot of running. Granted, Todd Gurley is unreal, but the Denver backs can move the ball too and the Rams run defense has been a lot worse than you think. Factor in the altitude and I think this game is close all the way through. I am calling for a Broncos win OUTRIGHT but to be safe I am going to take the points. The Rams have to lose sometime.
Bonus: Open 10 point teaser, Minnesota Vikings pk home vs Arizona Cardinals/open spot/open spot
Teasers are considered to be sucker bets. If you ask anyone who runs a sportsbook, their eyes light up when an average Joe decides to tease two 7 point favorites. They are considered extremely square plays and some professionals refuse to tease games ever.
I do not agree, and I am incredible at this. There is value to be had in some spots; but that is the key point, you have to really see the value, you can’t force it. So many times a square bettor will see as side he wants to tease and then try to figure out what other game he(or she, this is a PC blog) and talk himself into a side that isn’t that great. What I love to do is utilize the “open teaser” which almost all books offer nowadays. In an open teaser, you can begin a teaser and leave spots open for future picks. That way, you can wait until you see a spot you really like; one time it took me three weeks to close a 3 teamer. This week, I am opening up a 3 team 10 point teaser with 2 open spots and the Vikings. The Vikings aren’t losing at home to the Cardinals. We will fill this in over the course of the next few weeks, and we will win.
That is all, enjoy another week of football and making money. I am your sherpa and I will not lead you astray.