Last Week: 1-2-2
Season 8-8-2As you see, so far this year has been the epitome of average. If you have been following along, I haven’t cost you any money aside from a few bucks of juice, but we aren’t winning yet either! That is about to change, I feel it. We now have almost a quarter of a season’s worth of data and film to work with in developing an understanding of who each of these teams are. It’s time to make a big run, hop on board for the ride.
New England Patriots -4/Texas A&M pk teaser
So far in almost all of my columns, I have indicated that if I like a line on a Thursday game or if I want to get a bet on a specific number in early, I will tweet it out (@Eagles_Dan88)and it will count as a weekly play. This is the first time I am enforcing that, as I knew the Pats were going to roll on Thursday night. In fact, I should have been less of a pussy and just laid the 10. Now we just need A&M to win at home. I actually love them against the 6 point spread as well; commoners are going to see a ranked 4-0 team as a 6 point dog and think it is a steal, but look further into the statistics. Kentucky has absolutely been a pleasant surprise, but they have played some anemic offenses. A&M is unranked and only 2-2 but their two losses were against Clemson and Alabama, both of which they covered the spread and they almost beat Clemson outright. This is a huge game for the Aggies and they are going to roll! If you didn’t get this play in time, follow me already!
Cleveland Browns +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
Last week, I took two games with a three point spread, and they both pushed, so if you want to lay -125 to get this at 3.5, I don’t have any issue with that. But you should not need it with this one; the Browns are going to win this game outright. Cleveland really could be 4-0. I was able to push my Oakland -3 bet last week, but to be honest I was lucky as hell because Cleveland got screwed by the refs so hard; first when Derek Carr was ruled down by contact on a clear fumble, and second when the refs overturned a spot after a review that literally nobody thought should have been overturned. More important than that though, Baker Mayfield is the real deal. His statistics last week were not great, but he looked the part and the stat line would have been better if his teammates could catch the ball. The Browns fans are gonna be liquored up and loud as hell and create a wild atmosphere.
On the other hand, while Baltimore has looked very good so far this year, I am more than ok taking a field goal against them in a division road game. Methinks we see some of the Joe Flacco we have grown accustomed to since he won a Super Bowl, and he throws some picks. Browns win OUTRIGHT!
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs Jacksonville Jaguars EV
We don’t even have to lay any juice on this one! A lot is being made of this game and people are saying this is Pat Mahomes’ first real test. Basically, the word is out:
…And that's why the @Jaguars are good. #TheGoodPlace pic.twitter.com/oxxtrwIRGZ
— The Good Place is taking it sleazy (@nbcthegoodplace) October 5, 2018
The one thing I keep going back to is people don’t know how tough it can be to play on the road in the altitude of Denver. I actually think he will have an easier time at home against the Jags than he did on Monday when he led a come from behind win against the Broncos. A lot is made of the Jaguars defense and rightfully so, but KC just has too many weapons. If Jalen Ramsey can take Tyreke Hill out of the game, which I am not convinced he will, Travis Kelce will step up. Or Sammy Watkins (if he plays, which is not certain). And aside from that aspect, it is still Blake Bortles on the road in a very tough place to play. Keep riding the hot team until they give you a reason not to, KC takes care of business.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
The total of this game is 58, which is unheard of at the NFL level and tells you all you need to know about what kind of game is expected. This comes down to me trusting the Steelers in a must-win spot at home against a defense that has been decimated by injuries. Matt Ryan doesn’t play as well on the road, and I think you may see shades of the QB who struggled on opening night in Philly. Granted, Pittsburghs defense is trash, so even with a bad game, the Falcons could score in the 20s, but I really think the Steelers are going to score every time they touch the ball here. The final score is going to be in the 38-31 range, with the home team getting the W and Ben Rothlisberger getting the second biggest win of the week by somebody with a questionable sexual assault history.
Detroit Lions pk vs Green Bay Packers
Perfect zig-zag situation for each team here. Green Bay smoked Buffalo (as I told you they would) but were not particularly impressive in doing so, scoring only 22 points. Since that game ended, there has been rumblings of a conflict between Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy over play calling. On the other hand, while there was talk that the Detroit locker room was a dumpster fire after the first few weeks, those talks have died down and the team has played much better after a week 1 disaster. Granted, they did lose in Dallas last week, but like so many teams, the situation makes all the difference. I think they have somewhat of an offensive explosion at home against a very average at best Packers defense that is not as good as Josh Allen made them look. Also, depending on who is ruled healthy enough to play on Sunday, the Packers receiving options could be very bleak:
Add Davante Adams to the walking wounded. Adams limited today at practice with a calf injury. Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) both did not practice. #Packers injury report starting to look like the Red Wedding pic.twitter.com/blrHo0U9ok
— Stephen Watson (@WISN_Watson) October 3, 2018
Los Angeles Rams -7 at Seattle Seahawks
Look, I talk all the time about being a sharp bettor; not falling for the shady lines that the public is going to be all over. But sometimes, I gotta play with the squares. This play is square as fuck but much like my KC play, I see no reason to get in the way of a runaway train. The Rams look like the best team in the NFL by far, and this Seattle team is so far removed from what we have seen over the last 6 years or so. They will be without Earl Thomas, who, if you have been living under a rock, injured himself and flipped his team the bird as he was carted off. Even at home, in a building that once made the Hawks an auto-bet, they are just so inferior to this team talent wise I have to lay the points with a road team, which I hate doing. Crazy shit happens (see Buffalo at Minnesota, week 3)and this could very well lose, but I’ll pay to see that. And how do you recover from this from your star player?
Houston Texans -3 vs Dallas Cowboys
Dallas’ win last week gets us a half point of value here in my opinion. Dallas sucks, plain and simple. I know they won last week; bad teams win sometimes, and sometimes they even beat teams that are better than them. The spot was perfect for the Boys last week and they still barely squeaked by, failing to even cover the spread. Now they go on the road to face a Texans team who got off to a very sluggish start, but Deshaun Watson is looking better by the week in his return from ACL surgery. It is easy to forget that even after rehabilitating that injury, most players not named Adrian Peterson are not going to step right in and be their old self again; it takes time. Watson, to me, looks to have played his way back to where he once was, and the Texans know that they need to win this game or their season is over before week 6. Texans by a touchdown or more, and the Jason Garret’s seat becomes hotter than Keke Coutee’s fantasy value.
That’s the card for this week. More plays than I usually take in a week, but I like the value I see. Let’s go 7-0 baby!