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Degenerate Dan’s NFL Week 3 Wagers

Week 1: 3-1

Week 2: 2-2

What can I say other than “fuck kickers?” Week 1 was a huge success and we were so close to duplicating the 3-1 record in week 2 but this Minnesota asshole decided to go 0-3 on the day, including TWO overtime misses that would have won the game and more importantly, gotten us the cover.Here is exclusive footage of Daniel Carlson in overtime

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It’s amazing that we allow games played by behemoths crushing each other for 60 minutes to be decided by guys who look like they were on their high school debate team. We are still over 60% in the early going, but losses like that sting. One thing I did not do after the loss though; bet on another game out of anger in an attempt to make up for it. That is what I will always preach in this column; sportsbooks make money when people get pissed off at bad losses and chase. We aren’t going to do that. Thankfully, the Bears took care of business on Monday and the week ended up not terrible. There is an old adage amount sports bettors; “I’m really hoping to break even this week; I could really use the money.” Break even we did, but no worries, were going undefeated in week 3.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

For this play, I am trusting a large body of information over a small sample size. This Saints team was a miracle play away from the NFC Championship last year, and they have essentially the same team now. Their 0-2 start has many people down on them, but there’s no reason to think this team suddenly got bad. They are a notoriously slow starting team and I trust their veteran coaches and skill position players to come through in what is essentially a must-win game. These division rivals know each other well and generally play close games that either team could win outright. Combined with the Saints desperation, I am happy to take a field goal.

2 Team Teaser: New England Patriots -0.5 at Detroit Lions/KC Chiefs -0.5 vs SF 49ers

I don’t write up my teasers because any spread with 6 points removed is going to look pretty good and doesn’t need much explanation. Quite simply; the Pats are coming off a loss and you know they are going to want to stick it to Matt Patricia, whos defenses have given up 119 points in their last three games. KC is home for the first time and I expect a very hostile environment; imagine how psyched those fans are going to be with how their team has looked in it’s two road games against supposed playoff contenders. This teaser is square AF but I love it.

Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs Denver Broncos

This is a gut call more than anything; the Broncos are due for a loss and Baltimore has one of the most underrated home field advantages in the league. I lost on Denver last week, but when you lose you have to learn.  I learned that Denver isn’t that good and they let a shitty Oakland team control the game up until the final seconds. I am not going to hold Baltimore’s crappy performance on a Thursday night road game impact my opinion of them all that much. Finally, we have one of my favorite angles; a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. I really think Denver comes out flat and Baltimore hands them their first loss by a touchdown or more.

Minnesota Vikings -16.5 vs Buffalo Bills

Many “sharp” bettors will never lay this amount of points in an NFL game. I tend to shy away from doing so as well, but man, this is a mismatch and a half. Buffalo is not going to score a touchdown in Minnesota. Almost exactly one year ago, Josh Allen was 9/19 for 92 yards in a home game against Hawaii. Now he has to go up against the Vikings defense on the road? Obviously, you can’t compare college stats to pro stats, but it is very clear Allen is a project and is nowhere near ready for the NFL as of yet. Circumstances have him playing, however, and we need to take advantage. This is going to be a bloodbath, and if you are going to lay this many points in an NFL game, this is the guy to do it against.

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Tampa Bay Bucs +1.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 If you set aside public perception of these teams that come from the last decade, this should be a Tampa Bay -3 spread. The Steelers are still getting respect for their name, but they have been straight garbage this year and rumors of locker room turmoil have them in a very bad place. I don’t think Tampa Bay is quite as good as they have looked, but I do believe in Fitzmagic as a veteran quarterback who can succeed when he has weapons. And boy do the Buccaneers have weapons. There is nothing fluky about DeSean Jackson’s ability to burn any secondary, Mike Evan’s ability to dominate a game, or the emergence of Tight End O.J. Howard. If this train does eventually slow down, I have a hard time thinking it will be against a defense that, frankly, stink and has already been torched by the NFL’s other big offensive storyline. Does this look like a man about to lose at home on Monday Night Football?

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That’s what were rolling with this week. Win or lose, may none of these games be decided by fucking kickers!

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