If you were able to make it through my “War and Peace” length column last week, and got to my picks at the end, congratulations, we had an awesome week and went 3-1. The only loss occurred because Eli Manning is an ass face and I am never backing him again. Everything I said was going to happen in that game happened; the Giants defense played well, Blake Bortles look like Blake Bortles, OBJ came back strong and Saquon debuted with a bang. But again, this fuckwad is still the Giants QB:
Missing receivers, taking sacks, throwing a pick-6 in a game where points were at a premium; this clown did it all to cost us that cover. I am especially bitter about it because I specifically acknowledged in my column that he is a dipshit and I was taking the Giants in spite of him, and low and behold he went and fucked me. I shouldn’t sound too bitter though, the wins were pretty and plenty. Cincinnati showed, as I expected, that they are the flat out better team than the Colts. The Chiefs/Chargers game soared over, and Dallas’ offense showed the exact ineptitude that I said they would and Carolina covered with ease despite not exactly setting the world on fire offensively themselves. Yeah, I will take a 3-1 week anytime.
Moving on to Week 2, the most important thing to keep in mind is not overreacting to what we saw during Week 1. Most teams are not as good or as bad as they showed last week. If the Falcons gave a bad performance on a random November Sunday, it would be written off as just a bad game; every team has those, even the best. But since it was Week 1, people are jumping to conclusions about them as a team. These are exactly the kind of overreactions that I like to not only avoid making, but exploit.
One more side note before we get to the plays: if you enjoy betting on sports and are interested in my picks and insight, follow me on Twitter @Eagles_Dan88. Logistically, it makes sense for this to be a Friday column, but by Friday, many lines have already moved and one game has already been played. I was big on Cincy last night but you guys didn’t see that since this hadn’t been posted. In the future, I will be posting lines as I get them before they move and Thursday plays if I have them on my Twitter feed. I am not counting this week’s win towards my record because I will never do anything shady to sugar coat my record, but now that you have been warned, if I tweet a Thursday Night play, it will count.
Week 2 Plays (3-1 record on the year)
3 Team Moneyline Parlay: Chargers/Rams/Falcons +102
Seasoned bettors know that the moneyline is an alternate way to bet on a game without having to worry about the spread. When you bet on the moneyline, the team just needs to win the game for your bet to hit. The catch is, of course, the odds are generally pretty bad. For instance, the Chargers moneyline is -355, meaning you would have to wager $355 to win $100. A thing I like to do to reduce juice is parlay the moneylines. This is a strategy that can get you in trouble and can be very frustrating; it sucks a lot when one team in your moneyline parlay loses outright and the others not only win, but cover the spread with ease. But I like this one a lot; The Charges play the Bills, enough said. The Rams play at home against the Cardinals (moneyline is -900) and should also win with ease. For the third leg, I like the Falcons (-240 on the moneyline) to rebound at home to avoid falling to 0-2 on the year. Unlike the Bills and the Cardinals, the Panthers are not a shit team, but this is a tough road division game against a team who needs the win. I also think the Falcons are being a little undervalued after last week’s offensive dud, but they always suck in Philadelphia. Overall, they are an extremely talented team who should make a push for the division, and beating the Panthers at home is a good place to start. Parlaying these three moneylines pays just about even money, +102 to be exact.
Denver Broncos -6.5 vs Oakland Raiders
For two quarters, it looked like the Raiders might not suck as much as we had thought, as they went to the half tied with the LA Rams. Then, the real Rams showed up; remember, Sean McVay doesn’t play his starters during the exhibition games, so the first half was their chance to shake off the rust. Once the 2nd half started, they dominated the Raiders and won with ease. As we thought; the Raiders suck. Now, this team, with the oldest average age of any team in the NFL, gets to travel to the altitude of Denver on a short week. From an emotional standpoint, the Raiders are a mess and the John Gruden era is looking like a dumpster fire. After pissing off the entire fanbase by trading Kahlil Mack, good old Chucky had the nerve to make this comment after the game:
When asked about why Amari Cooper was an invisible man on Monday:
So yeah, he traded one star player and then threw another under the bus in an interview. He is a joke and this team is a dumpster fire. The Broncos actually looked very good; they beat the Seahawks 27-24 but the game wasn’t really that close if you watched it. The offense looked reinvigorated; Case Keenum is no superstar but compared to the slop they threw out at the QB position last year he looked like John Elway. You could see in the body language of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas that they were thrilled to have someone competent throwing them the ball again. Combined with a rookie-led run game that looks very promising, and I trust that they will put up plenty of points and destroy the Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders locker room omens have not been good:
Minnesota Vikings +1 vs Green Bay Packers
I like this play for 2 reasons: the first is that there are weird rumblings from Green Bay that Aaron Rodgers may miss some time. If that is the case, this line will skyrocket. In fact, some books have taken this line off the board completely until they hear about his status, but there are plenty that are currently offering this line (another example of why it is important to use multiple books).
The second reason is that even if Rodgers is healthy, he wont be 100% and the Vikings defense is legit. Best case I get a good line here if it moves when Deshone Kizer is announced as the starter. Worst case, I have a legitimate Super Bowl contender at +1 against a QB who is not 100% and a team who just nearly lost at home to the Bears. I like my chances.
Does this look like a man who is doing ok?
Chicago Bears -3 vs Seattle Seahawks (-120)
You have to lay extra juice to get this line to -3, but I am all for it to get the line to a point where a FG pushes. That isn’t to say I think we will need that half point; Chicago is going to win big here. We did see the Bears collapse on Sunday Night Football last week against the Packers, and a skeptic could say that a loss like that is demoralizing and could hurt the team. I tend to have a more positive outlook on this team; they went into Lambeau and played extremely well. It took a God-like Aaron Rodgers 2nd half along with about a half dozen flukes going the Packers way for them to lose the game. And I do think that new HC Matt Nagy will learn from that and not be so conservative when he has a lead in the future. And Khalil Mack is only going to get more and more snaps per game as he learns the defensive scheme.
On the Seahawks side, I think this team could be in for a very rough season. They did hang with Denver last week thanks to 3 Case Keenum interceptions, but they also lost Russell Wilson’s favorite WR Doug Baldwin in the process. This defense is a shell of what it used to be and its offense is in such a bad spot that they are counting on Brandon Marshall. I think the Bears are going to announce their arrival as a legitimate NFL team in front of a national audience Monday Night, and at the same time the country is going to see that Pete Carroll’s boys reign is officially over. Plus, It is hard to imagine Carroll had a lot of time to game plan the week of September 11th, as he was probably spending too much time searching for the truth.
And the best news; our resident Chicago fan agrees!
That’s it for the week; feels like 4-0 to me but I won’t be greedy, I’ll take another 3-1 week in a heartbeat. You guys know the drill for Sunday; let’s drink some beers, win some cash and enjoy some NFL football.